老师可以帮忙看一下下面的答案是否能拿满分吗?
Inflation forecast is lower inflation and possibly deflation over the next 12M.
i. In a low inflation and possibly deflation situation, the central bank is likely to adopt an expansionary monetary policy and thus short term rates are expected to decline. Cash as a short term investment instrument has lower return. However, deflation can make cash attractive if a zero lower bound is binding on the nominal interest rate.
ii. When inflation is expected to be lower, the expected inflation component of bond yield falls and then bond price will increase, generating capital gain. In case of deflation, the purchasing power of bonds’ cash flows from regular coupon payment increases, which benefits high quality bonds while impair creditworthiness of low quality bonds. So high quality bond return is going to increase and low quality bond return is going to decrease.
iii. Lower inflation and deflation indicates low economic growth where equity returns are low. The circumstance is particularly detrimental for asset intensive and commodity producing firms.
iv. Lower inflation/deflation means lower rental income and property values. Therefore real estate return is expected to fall.