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Heidi.S · 2024年11月05日

请老师详细解释一下Survivorship bias和Selection bias的区别

NO.PZ2023101902000062

问题如下:

Blue Sky Funds, a private equity fund, has suffered low returns for the last five years. As a result, the fund has decided to quit reporting returns. The fund did report returns each year for the last 10 years when performance was strong. This problem of reporting leads to:

选项:

A.Survivorship bias. B.Sample selection bias. C.Infrequent trading bias. D.Attrition bias.

解释:

There are no requirements for certain types of funds, like private equity funds, to report returns. As such, poorly performing funds have a tendency to stop reporting. Additionally, many poorly performing funds ultimately fail. Performance studies generally include only those funds that were successful enough to survive over the entire period of analysis, leaving out the returns of funds that no longer exist. Both of these factors result in reported returns that are too high. This is called survivorship bias.

实际做题过程中还是不太好辨别

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年11月05日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


Survivorship bias:幸存者偏差。指的是只有存活的、成功的个体被纳入分析,而忽略了那些失败或破产的个体,这往往会导致高估整体业绩的表现。

本题就是讲义里面第一条,业绩差的时候停止公布业绩,这属于典型的survivorship bias。



Selection bias:选择性偏差。指的是在抽样的过程中,并非完全随机,而是从总体数据中抽取带有某些特征的样本,这会导致抽样失去统计意义。这个bias一般指的是在抽样的时候会出现。


这个bias往往和survivorship一起出现,但是本题说的是属于典型的survivorship, 所以A选项更合适。




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