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alexanderwang · 2024年11月03日

题目问的是risk premium而不是收益率

NO.PZ2015121810000042

问题如下:

Risk-averse investors demanding a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes and equity returns to be:

选项:

A.

uncorrelated.

B.

positively correlated.

C.

negatively correlated.

解释:

B is correct.

If investors demand high equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption and equity returns to be positively correlated. The positive correlation indicates that equities will exhibit poor hedging properties, as equity returns will be high (e.g., pay off) during "good times" and will be low (e.g., not pay off) during "bad times". In other words, the covariance between risk-averse investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive and large equity risk premium. This is the case because, in good times, when equity returns are high, the marginal value of consumption is low. Similarly, in bad times, when equity returns are low, the marginal value of consumption is high. Holding all else constant, the larger the magnitude of the negative covariance term, the larger the risk premium.

考点: equity risk premium & consumption outcomes

解析:问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。

老师好,

我看题目问的是risk premium和未来消费(经济趋势)的相关性,老师在其他同学的提问里也回复了如下内容:

在经济差的情况下,消费水平会自然下跌,股票在经济差的时候也会跌,这时候无法通过卖股票获得收益维持消费水平,所以股票不能对冲风险(bad consumption hedge),这个时候要求的RP就需要很高。

按照上面回复理解,经济差的情况下,要求的RP很高,这就是negative correlated呀,为什么答案是positive correlated呢?

谢谢!

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年11月04日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目问的是risk premium equity returns和未来消费(经济趋势)的相关性。

经济不好的时候,上述两者同时下降,为正相关。

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