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burnwood · 2024年11月01日

麻烦解释一下这个知识点

NO.PZ2023040401000064

问题如下:

To the holder of a long position, it is more desirable to own a forward contract than a futures contract when interest rates and futures prices are:

选项:

A.

negatively correlated.

B.

uncorrelated.

C.

positively correlated.

解释:

A is correct. If futures prices and interest rates are negatively correlated, forwards are more desirable to holders of long positions than are futures. This is because rising prices lead to futures profits that are reinvested in periods of falling interest rates. It is better to receive all of the cash at expiration under such conditions. If futures prices and interest rates are uncorrelated, forward and futures prices will be the same. If futures prices are positively correlated with interest rates, futures contracts are more desirable to holders of long positions than are forwards.

其实对这个知识点有点疑惑,就是forward和futures在制定执行价格的时候应该是差不多的,也就是最终的收益都是S0-F0(T),然后因为futures能提前拿到钱,所以涉及再投资的问题,但是我不理解的是不管利率怎么变化,futures始终是早拿到了现金流,利率再低他也比futures多获得了一部分收益,为什么会negative correlation会使得futures价格低于forward呢?

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年11月01日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


你得这么想:

negative correlation的时候,利率上升对应的是F(T)下跌,futures的多头是亏钱的。而且多头要用更高的利率去融资,来补充保证金。

forward的多头虽然也有账面浮亏,但是不需要补充保证金。


所以此时forward更有优势,所以forward price大于futures price。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!