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wukefu · 2024年10月31日

老师看看你我的回答

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NO.PZ202105270100000202

问题如下:

At the investment committee meeting, the firm’s chief economist predicts that the economy will enter the late expansion phase of the business cycle in the next 12 months.

Discuss, based on the chief economist’s prediction, the implications for the following:

i. Bond yields

ii. Equity returns

iii. Short-term interest rates

选项:

解释:

Bond yields:

In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, bond yields are usually rising but more slowly than short-term interest rates are, so the yield curve flattens. Private sector borrowing puts upward pressure on rates while fiscal balances typically improve

Equity returns :

In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, stocks typically rise but are subject to high volatility as investors become nervous about the restrictive monetary policy and signs of a looming economic slowdown. Cyclical assets may underperform while inflation hedges, such as commodities, outperform.

Short-term interest rates :

In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, short-term interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes restrictive because the economy is increasingly in danger of overheating. The central bank may aim for a soft landing

债券收益率:
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段,债券收益率通常会上升,但比短期利率上升的速度要慢,因此收益率曲线会变平。私人部门给借贷给利率带来上行压力,而财政平衡通常会改善。


股权回报率:
在商业周期扩张的后期阶段,股市通常会上涨,但由于投资者对限制性货币政策和经济放缓迹象感到紧张,股市会出现高波动性。周期性资产可能表现不佳,而通胀对冲资产,如大宗商品,则表现出色。


短期利率:
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段,由于经济日益面临过热的危险,货币政策变趋紧,短期利率通常会上升。央行可能以软着陆为目标。

麻烦老师看看我主观题的答案,是否回答到点上。谢谢

i. Bond yields: the bond yield is equal to the long-term interest rate. it will increase. The reason is restrictive monetary plolicy is applied and short-term interest rate keeps increasing. Long-term interest rate is the expected future patch of short-term interest rate. As the short-term interest rate will increase, Bond yields will increase.

2.Equity returns: it will decrease. As the economy will hit the peak and will slow down in next phase, the short-term interest rate keep increasing and this will increase the investment cost and equtiy return will decrease.

3. Short-term interest rates: it will increase. The economy is close to overheat and the central bank will apply restrictive policy to soft land economy. Short-term interest rates is very sensitive to the monetary policy.

3 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年11月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:



同学的理解是OK的,可以用类似的逻辑进行推演。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2024年10月31日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:




1. 债券收益的原因,原版书写的是,Private sector borrowing puts upward pressure on rates while fiscal balances typically improve


Equity returns 。这里最好按书上的来。同学说的逻辑是短期带动长期,但是教材说法不是这样的。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

wukefu · 2024年11月01日

答案中的逻辑说曲线是平坦,是因为长期和短期利率都上涨,只是长期上涨的缓慢,短期上涨的快,所以曲线平坦。 这个逻辑是不是都可以用于类似的问题,:比如在early expansion阶段,利率曲线也是平坦的:我们就可以说,monetary policy 是开始紧缩的,这让短期利率上涨,同时长期利率也上涨,因为短期涨的更快,所以,曲线开始变平坦

源_品职助教 · 2024年10月31日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:



2.Equity returns , 答案写的是上涨(只有周期性资产可能表现不佳)。但是同学写的是下降,所以整个就错了。

3. 短期利率不分没啥问题。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

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