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KKII · 2024年10月30日

C答案解析说基本面分析相比量化分析更容易出现value trap

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NO.PZ201809170400000403

问题如下:

Which manager is most likely to get caught in a value trap?

选项:

A.

Furlings

B.

Asgard

C.

Tokra

解释:

C is the correct answer. A value trap occurs when a stock that appears to have an attractive valuation because of a low P/E and/or P/B multiple (or other relevant value proxies) appears cheap only because of its worsening growth prospects. Although a pitfall such as value trap is more common in fundamental investing, a quantitative process that relies on historical information and does not integrate future expectations about cash flows or profitability may be unable to detect a value trap.

A is an incorrect answer. Although Furlings is a top-down manager, its sector portfolios are built through investing in a small number of high-conviction securities after its analysts have dissected the financial statements and analyzed the competitive landscape and growth prospects. Managers at Furlings are more likely than managers at Tokra to be aware of the significant deteriorating prospects of a security they are considering for investment.

B is an incorrect answer. One of Asgard’s investment criteria is identifying firms that have good potential cash flow growth over the next three years. The firm has access to database and support tools, allowing its analysts to evaluate many potential growth metrics. Managers at Asgard are more likely than managers at Tokra to be aware of the significant deteriorating prospects of a security they are considering for investment.

Although a pitfall such as value trap is more common in fundamental investing, a quantitative process that relies on historical information and does not integrate future expectations about cash flows or profitability may be unable to detect a value trap.


C答案解析说基本面分析相比量化分析更容易出现value trap,这个写反了吧,量化模型只看历史价格变化规律,不看未来前景,更容易出现value trap吧

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年10月30日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


C答案解析说基本面分析相比量化分析更容易出现value trap,这个写反了吧,量化模型只看历史价格变化规律,不看未来前景,更容易出现value trap吧

Hello,亲爱的同学~

我们看C选项的解析:

C是正确答案。当一只股票因低市盈率和/或市盈率倍数(或其他相关价值指标)而具有有吸引力的估值,但仅因其增长前景恶化而显得便宜时,就会出现价值陷阱。尽管价值陷阱等陷阱在基本面投资中更为常见,但依赖历史信息而不整合对现金流或盈利能力的未来预期的定量过程可能无法检测到价值陷阱。


这段话的含义,是量化投资相比基本面分析,更容易出现value trap。

我们看这里基本面表述:价值陷阱在基本面投资中常见,意思是,基本面投资可能出现价值陷阱,也可能规避掉价值陷阱。

再看量化的阐述:依赖历史信息而不整合对现金流或盈利能力的未来预期的定量过程可能无法检测到价值陷阱。量化投资“无法检测”价值陷阱,也就是它规避不掉。

一个常常掉进陷阱,但还是有一些情况可以规避的。一个是“无法检测”,规避不掉。

那么对比的话,还是量化,更容易掉入value trap。

所以本题选C。C是量化,最容易掉进value trap的也是C。

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