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徐威廉 · 2024年10月27日

D选项可以解释一下吗?

NO.PZ2023102101000065

问题如下:

In a surprise monetary policy action on August 10, 2015, the People’s Bank of China cut its daily currency reference rate against the USD, resulting in a large devaluation of the CNY versus the USD. Immediately after the announcement, the CRO of CMM Bank (CMM), an international bank with headquarters in Shanghai, began evaluating the impact of this and other events on the bank’s position.

CMM had outstanding long-term debt denominated in USD and deposits denominated in CNY. A significant portion of CMM’s lending portfolio was also denominated in CNY and consisted largely of loans and lines of credit to Chinese manufacturers who were heavily dependent on imported raw materials. Other loans to non-Chinese firms with exposure to China were denominated in USD. The bank’s portfolio investments included CNY denominated Chinese Treasury securities and other sovereign debt.

A portion of CMM’s retail customer base had invested on margin in the Chinese equity markets. Over the next few weeks, local stock markets experienced declines in share prices. Many of CMM’s larger retail depositors experienced margin calls and had begun to draw down demand deposits to meet them. Offsetting these outflows, however, were increases in the 3-month, 6-month and 9-month term deposit balances at CMM of several large corporate customers. The result was that CMM’s overall net deposit flow had been approximately zero.

As a result of credit developments elsewhere in the world, several of CMM’s sovereign debt holdings were downgraded, some from AA to A and some from A to BBB. One of the noticeable outcomes was that the bid-ask spreads on many of the sovereign bonds held and traded by CMM widened. Despite these developments, CMM’s sovereign debt portfolio remained exclusively investment grade with a weighted average rating of A+.

CMM’s CRO was concerned about the bank’s liquidity position and decided to review the impact of the devaluation and other capital market events on its net stable funding ratio (NSFR). Ignoring any changes in the market value of CMM’s sovereign debt holdings, which of the following is correct?

选项:

A.

The NSFR will not be impacted by the sovereign credit rating changes because the overall sovereign debt portfolio remains investment grade

B.

The NSFR will be reduced by the sovereign credit rating changes but this effect can be offset by selling A-rated sovereign debt and investing the proceeds in gold

C.

The NSFR will not be impacted by the change in demand deposits because the bank’s overall deposit level is unchanged

D.

The NSFR will be reduced by the change in demand deposits but this effect can be offset by issuing common stock

解释:

The shift in the demand deposit base from retail demand deposits to wholesale demand deposits with terms less than one year would reduce the NSFR. The change in retail deposit behavior would likely cause a shifting of demand deposit classification from “stable” to “less stable” also reducing the NSFR. The downward sovereign credit migration would increase the RSF applied to these bonds and reduce the NSFR. The issuance of common stock, which should be classified as Tier 1 capital, would increase the NSFR.

D选项可以解释一下吗?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa39 · 2024年10月28日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目中提到,CMM银行的部分零售客户由于股票市场下跌而面临追加保证金的压力,他们开始提取活期存款来应对这些保证金需求。与此同时,几家大型公司客户增加了3个月、6个月和9个月期的定期存款。由于活期存款(通常来自零售客户)被视为相对“稳定的资金”,但公司客户的短期定期存款被认为是“较不稳定的资金”,因此活期存款的减少(被转换为更短期的公司存款)会使NSFR下降。

零售客户的活期存款(一般分类为“稳定存款”)在逐渐被公司客户的短期存款取代,这意味着银行的资金来源会从“稳定”转向“较不稳定”。由于NSFR计算时,较稳定的存款对银行的长期资金需求有更高的支持率,而较不稳定的存款则支持较少的长期资金需求,这种转变会导致NSFR下降。

题目还提到CMM银行的部分主权债务持有评级被下调,虽然整体仍为投资级,但部分债务评级从AA降到A、从A降到BBB。评级下调会使这些债券的所需稳定资金(RSF)比率上升,这会进一步减少NSFR。

发行普通股可以被视为一级资本(Tier 1 Capital),属于长期且稳定的资金来源,因此能够提高NSFR。通过发行普通股,CMM银行可以增加稳定资金来源,从而抵消NSFR因存款结构变化和主权债务评级下降带来的负面影响。

 

因此,选项D是正确的,活期存款结构变化会减少NSFR;发行普通股能提供更稳定的资金来源,增加NSFR,抵消活期存款变化的负面影响。

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徐威廉 · 2024年10月30日

由于活期存款(通常来自零售客户)被视为相对“稳定的资金”,但公司客户的短期定期存款被认为是“较不稳定的资金”,因此活期存款的减少(被转换为更短期的公司存款)会使NSFR下降。 活期demand deposit是稳定资金,定期term deposit是不稳定的资金,这很违背常理啊,活期的不是客户想取就取很不稳定吗?

pzqa39 · 2024年10月30日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


不是的~在银行的流动性监管框架中是这样的逻辑:


零售客户的活期存款通常是用于日常支出和储蓄,取款行为一般是分散而持续的,不会出现大量集中取款的情况。因此,这类存款的流失风险较小。零售存款的数量多且规模小,来源分散,减少了个别客户大额提款的冲击。因此,监管机构认为零售客户的活期存款对银行的流动性冲击较小,流失风险较低,所以被视为“稳定资金”。


虽然定期存款在期限内不能随意取出,但在期限结束后有可能不会续存,甚至会在到期前大量转移到其他投资渠道。公司客户对利率和市场变化更为敏感,资金流动性较大;公司客户的存款通常金额较大,存在集中度风险。一旦出现市场波动或公司客户的流动性需求变化,大额资金的流失会对银行流动性带来较大冲击,所以被认为是不稳定的。

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