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S🍭🐾 · 2024年10月26日

为什么不是early expansion阶段

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NO.PZ202405210200000403

问题如下:

Given Klein’s and Tao’s assessment of the US business cycle, which of the following statements is most likely correct?

选项:

A.Statement 4

B.Statement 5

C.Statement 6

解释:

Based on the description provided by Klein and Tao, the US is most likely in the late expansion phase. In late expansion, cyclical assets may underperform while inflation hedges outperform. Real assets would likely perform well in a period of higher-than-expected inflation with durable, but weakening, growth. Equity and low-credit-quality fixed income are cyclical assets and will typically underperform at this stage of a business cycle, especially over a three-year period as the economy is likely to transition into the slowdown phase over that time.

为啥不是early expansion 阶段


1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年10月27日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


为什么不是early expansion阶段

Hello,亲爱的同学~

我们看题目信息点里,关于美国经济周期评估的这段:

Klein and Tao are assessing the impact that each phase of the business cycle has on their short- and long-term capital market expectations. Within the US, they have observed low unemployment, strong profits, rising wages and inflation, and capacity pressures. The central bank has communicated its intent to raise rates for the foreseeable future.


我们看标黑的这些描述:

低失业率,强劲的企业利润,上升的工资,上升的通胀,产能开始不够,央行开始加息。

题目里描述的这些,都是经济后期的表现。


early expansion阶段,经济虽然在上升,但还不是特别强劲。并不会引起通胀的上升,以及工资的上涨。

而且央行虽然开始退出刺激政策,但并不会采取紧缩政策,在early expansion阶段并不会出现加息的情况。


高通胀、产能不足,央行加息,这是典型的 late expansion phase的特征。




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