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哇哈哈哈 · 2024年10月26日

这道题不能用Ri2014 * w 来算吗？

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023032701000067

问题如下：

Nkomo mentions to Mahlangu that Amersheen recently (near the end of 2011) completed the acquisition of a chain of convenience stores. Nkomo requests that Mahlangu complete, as of the beginning of 2012, an updated valuation of Amersheen under two scenarios:

Scenario 1 Estimate the value of Amersheen shares using a multistage residual income (RI) model with the data provided in Exhibit 3. Under Scenario 1, expected ROE in 2015 is 26% but it is assumed that the firm’s ROE will slowly decline towards the cost of equity thereafter.

Exhibit 3. Amersheen Data (amounts in South African Rand)

Under Scenario 1, the intrinsic value per share of the equity of Amersheen is closest to:

选项：

A.

R13.29

B.

R15.57

C.

R16.31

解释：


这道题不能用Ri2014 * w 当成RI 2015 来计算吗？

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2 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年11月14日

同学你好，

首先，以下是原版书给出的公式，以下为原版书截图黄色部分

其次，李老师上课是讲过原版书这个公式的，以下为老师上课的笔记版讲义截图——紫色部分画出来了这个公式

李老师的讲义上的公式是这个原版书公式向后推导一年得出的，推导的基础就是w=1+g——具体同学可以参考一下基础班讲义列示4个多阶段RI计算公式的后面的那道例题，用到的公式其实也是原版书的公式，而李老师其实特意在这道题目里把他的公式和原版书的公式都解释了一遍也计算了一遍的


所以原版书的计算公式下，也就是本题的解析逻辑下，RI2015 = 1.608（注意这是RI2015不是RI2014）是可以直接作为分子的，而分母就是（1+r-w), 这种计算方式是没有问题的


当然你也可以用李老师的公式解题，但是用李老师的公式需要多计算一期多折现一期

也就是PVRI2016=RI2015*w/(1+re-w),得到的RI2016相当于位于2015年的年底

最后就是V0 = RI2012折现1年+RI2013折现2年，RI2014折现3年，（RI2015+PVRI2016）折现4年

得出的结果和用原版书公式的解析中的结果是一样的

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年10月26日

同学你好，不能哦——题目说了 ”Under Scenario 1, expected ROE in 2015 is 26% but it is assumed that the firm’s ROE will slowly decline towards the cost of equity thereafter.“

你仔细看下题目的说明蓝色部分——意思是ROE是在2015年达到的26%并且在那之后才缓慢下降到Re的水平——也就是从2015年以后RI才遵循RIt = RIt-1 * w的规律，即RI2016 = RI2015*w才开始成立；但是2014到2015年还没有进入RI缓慢下降的阶段，RI2015并不能用RI2014*w来计算

phoebeqp · 2024年11月14日

那为什么PVRI_2014又可以除以(1+r-ω)呢？应该是PVRI_2015才可以呀？

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