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John Liu · 2024年10月26日

关键是把握 CAPM 中有两个 rf,需要分别考虑影响 根据题干要求,两个 rf 都会造成高估 re,

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NO.PZ202210140200000103

问题如下:

In the current interest rate environment, using a required return on equity estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical ERP defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upward

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downward

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct. The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical ERP, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward-sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upward.

老师,这句话还是不太懂

是指第一个rf是高估,因为用了当前的曲线,第二个rf是低估,因为用了正常的倾斜向上的收益率曲线?因此都是高估re?

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已采纳答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2024年10月28日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


是的。你理解的没有问题啊。因为题干说了using a required return on equity estimate based on the short-term government bond rate,因为现在是收益率曲线倒挂了,短期大于长期,所以第一个Rf是高估了。and a historical ERP defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate,历史上收益率曲线大部分都是正常倾斜向上的,所以第二个Rf更低的,所以整体是高估了re。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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