没看懂 可以讲一下吗

问题如下：

A Mexican retailer buys its goods from global suppliers. The contracts are priced in U.S. dollars. The retailer sells its goods to Mexican consumers and receives pesos from the sales. The firm enters a currency swap in which they will pay dollars and receive Brazilian real. They use Monte Carlo simulation to model their potential future exposure (PFE) to the real. Which of the following is most consistent with the retailer’s circumstances?

选项：

A.

The retailer has wrong-way exposure in the swap and should use a lognormal distribution to model the PFE to the real.

B.

The retailer has right-way exposure in the swap and should use a distribution that allows for jumps to model the PFE to the real.

C.

The retailer has right-way exposure in the swap and should use a lognormal distribution to model the PFE to the real.

D.

The retailer has wrong-way exposure in the swap and should use a distribution that allows for jumps to model the PFE to the real.

解释：

The retailer has wrong-way exposure in the swap. They are paying dollars in their underlying business and paying dollars in the swap. If the dollar increases in value, their losses increase in both their business and the swap (i.e., the swap increases their expected losses).

The retailer should use a distribution that allows for jumps to model the PFE to the real because emerging country currencies are subject to extreme volatility.

A lognormal distribution would be used for major currencies, so choices A and C are incorrect.