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Tututu · 2024年10月20日

为什么spread narrow 不是短期利率的上升

NO.PZ2023061903000008

问题如下:

Q. When the spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and the short-term federal funds rate narrows and at the same time the prime rate stays unchanged, this mix of indicators most likely forecasts future economic:

选项:

A.growth. B.decline. C.stability.

解释:

B is correct. The narrowing spread of this leading indicator foretells a drop in short-term rates and a fall in economic activity. The prime rate is a lagging indicator and typically moves after the economy turns.

B正确。息差这一先进指标的收窄预示着短期利率的下降和经济活动的减少。最优惠利率是一个滞后指标,通常在经济好转后才会变动。

为什么spread narrow 不是短期利率的上升

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年10月21日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


为什么spread narrow 不是短期利率的上升

Hello,亲爱的同学~

这里需先理解第一个知识点:经济领先指标。

spread 是经济的领先指标。spread收窄,预示着未来经济活动将下滑。反之,spread上升,预示着未来经济活动将上升。


在以上知识点的基础基础上,结合本题:

spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and the short-term federal funds rate,是指长短利率的利差。

这是经济的领先指标,利差收窄,则表示经济未来衰退。


因此已经可以选出B。


再了解第二个知识点:利率的整体变动,与经济,是同向变动的。

结合本题,当经济下滑的时候,利率也是下降的,所以说短期利率下降。

拓展一下,这里长期和短期利率都是下降的,只是长期利率下降得更快,所以长短利差会收窄。




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