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C_M_ · 2024年10月18日

解释一下计算过程

NO.PZ2023101902000035

问题如下:

At the end of 2007, Chad & Co.’s pension had USD 350 million worth of assets that were fully invested in equities and USD 180 million in fixed-income liabilities with a modified duration of 14. In 2008, the wide spread effects of the subprime crisis hit the pension fund, causing its investment in equities to loss 50% of their market value. In addition, the immediate response from the government – cutting interest rates – to salvage the situation, caused bond yields to decline by 2%. What was the change in the pension fund’s surplus in 2008?

选项:

A.USD -55.4 million

B.USD -124.6 million

C.USD -225.4 million

D.USD -230.4 million

解释:

The change in the pension fund’s surplus for the year 2008 is equal to the initial surplus S0 at the end of 2007 less the ending surplus S1 at the end of 2008. The initial surplus is calculated as S0 = 350 – 180 = 170. Next we have to calculate the surplus at the end of 2008. Given the 50% decline in the equity market, the new level of assets A1 at the end of 2008 is equal to: (1 – 0.5) × 350 = 175 The new level of liabilities L1 can be calculated as: L1 = (1 – 14 × (-0.02)) × 180 = 230.4 Therefore the 2008 surplus S1 is equal to A1 – L1 = 175 – 230.4 = -55.4 (which implies the pension fund is actually in a deficit situation at the end of 2008). The change in surplus for 2008 is hence S1 – S0 = -55.4 – 170 = -225.4 million.

麻烦解释一下计算过程

1 个答案

pzqa27 · 2024年10月18日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


在这道题中,我们要计算 2008 年 Chad & Co. 的养老金账户的盈余变化。题目给出了一些初始条件以及市场变化,具体的计算过程如下:

1. 计算 2007 年末的初始盈余 (S₀):

盈余 (Surplus) 是资产 (Assets) 减去负债 (Liabilities)。在 2007 年末,养老金账户有 350 m 美元的资产和 180 m 美元的负债,因此初始盈余为:

S0=资产−负债=350−180=170 百万美元S₀ = 资产 - 负债 = 350 - 180 = 170 \, 百万美元S0​=资产−负债=350−180=170百万美元

2. 计算 2008 年末的资产 (A₁):

2008 年股市暴跌导致 Chad & Co. 的股权投资损失 50% 的市值。因此,2008 年末资产 (A₁) 变为:

A1=(1−0.5)×350=0.5×350=175 m美元

3. 计算 2008 年末的负债 (L₁):

题目还提到,利率下降了 2%,这会导致负债的市值上升。由于负债是固定收益债券,其修改久期 (Modified Duration) 为 14,因此我们可以用如下公式计算负债的变化:

L1=(1−duration×利率变化)×L0

其中:

  • duration = 14
  • 利率变化 = -2% = -0.02
  • 2007 年末的负债 L₀ = 180 m美元

因此:

L1=(1−14×(−0.02))×180=(1+0.28)×180=1.28×180=230.4m美元

4. 计算 2008 年末的盈余 (S₁):

盈余 S₁ 是 2008 年末的资产减去负债:

S1=A1−L1=175−230.4=−55.4 m美元

这意味着养老金账户在 2008 年末处于亏损状态。

5. 计算盈余的变化:

盈余的变化是 2008 年末的盈余减去 2007 年末的盈余:

盈余变化=S1−S0=−55.4−170=−225.4 m美元


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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