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Bamboo · 2024年10月17日

为什么是用15.9095除以17.6528,而不是15.9095除以(15.9095+17.6528)?

NO.PZ2023032701000021

问题如下:

Talisman is an independent upstream oil and gas company headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Talisman pays semi-annual dividends. The total dividends during 2008 last year have been C$0.175.

Dobson is using two-stage DDM to estimate the value of the stock.

The dividend growth rate will be 14 percent throughout the first stage of eight years. The dividend growth rate thereafter will be 7 percent.

Dobson is using the CAPM to estimate the required return on equity for Talisman. He has estimated that the beta of Talisman, as measured against the S&P/TSX Composite Index (formerly TSE 300 Composite Index), is 0.84. The Canadian risk-free rate, as measured by the annual yield on the 10-year government bond, is 4.1 percent. The equity risk premium for the Canadian market is estimated at 5.5 percent.

What proportion of the total value of the stock is represented by the value of second stage?

选项:

A.

0.10

B.

0.52

C.

0.90

解释:

Based on these data, Dobson has estimated that the required return on Talisman stock is 0.041 + 0.84(0.055) = 0.0872 or 8.72 percent.

The following table provides the calculations needed to compute the value of the stock using the first approach, including the calculations for the terminal value V8. As the table shows, the terminal value V8=C$31.0550.

As shown in the above table, the value of the second stage = PV of V8= C$15.9095. The total value is C$17.6528. As a proportion, the second stage represents 15.9095/17.6528 = 0.90 of the total value.

What proportion of the total value of the stock is represented by the value of second stage?这句话不是问第二阶段现值占总现值的比例吗?15.9095+17.6528不应该是两个阶段的总现值吗?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年10月17日

同学你好,你再仔细看下解析的表格,15.9095是V8折现到0时刻的价值,再加上D1到D8折现到0时刻的值,也就是0.1835到0.2557之间的那8个分红折现到0时刻的值,就已经是V0实际的价值了也就是17.6528了

也就是17.6528本身里面就已经包含了15.9095了,你为什么还要再加一次15.9095呢?不是重复加了吗?

所谓的“the total value of the stock”就是股票0时刻的价值V0,就等于1到8时刻的分红以及第二阶段terminal value全部折现到0时刻的值哦

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