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alexanderwang · 2024年10月15日

用长期的rf

NO.PZ2022101402000009

问题如下:

An analyst is estimating a forward-looking ERP for a market based on the following information:


Using the Grinold-Kroner model, the estimates of the ERP is closest to:

选项:

A.

2.16%

B.

4.24%

C.

5.18%

解释:

B is correct.

The ERP using the forward-looking approach is calculated as

ERP = {1.8 – 1.2 + (1.9 + 2.7 – 0.0)} – 0.96

ERP = 5.20 – 0.96 = 4.24%.

老师好,看了其他同学的问题回复,还是不太理解,为什么不用3.15%

老师的回复里面说了,这里属于look-forward model,要用长期,但是因为题目没有给长期,所以只能用短期。

但是题目给了长期啊,3.15%就是长期啊。

谢谢老师!

1 个答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2024年10月16日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


首先,3.15%是短期哈。long term 只是用来形容统计回测的时间,是长期,但是统计的主体,还是短期利率,最后一行的最后几个单词:... of short-term government bond,所以这个说的也是短期。

根本原因就是GK model要用当前的利率,而不是用统计出来的历史几何平均利率,这是用于历史估计法的。

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