NO.PZ2023091601000002
问题如下:
An analyst develops the
following probability distribution about the state of the economy and the
market.
Which
of the following statements about this probability distribution is least likely
accurate?
选项:
A.The
probability of a normal market is 0.30
The
probability of having a good economy and a bear market is 0.12
Given
that the economy is good, the chance of a poor economy and a bull market is
0.15
Given
that the economy is poor, the combined probability of a normal or a bull market
is 0.50
解释:
Given that the
economy is good, the probability of a poor economy and a bull market is zero.
The other statements are true. The P(normal market) = (0.60 × 0.30) + (0.40 ×
0.30) = 0.30. P(good economy and bear market) = 0.60 × 0.20 = 0.12. Given that
the economy is poor, the probability of a normal or bull market = 0.30 + 0.20 =
0.50.
请麻烦展示一下每个具体的选项计算方式