simultaneous signal of economic activity 是问同步指标的意思吗

问题如下：

Among the following, which one accurately acts as a simultaneous signal of economic activity?

选项：

A.Average duration of unemployment B.Average weekly hours, manufacturing C.Employees on non-agricultural payrolls

解释：

Solution

1. Average duration of unemployment
   Incorrect. The time individuals remain unemployed tends to extend or contract based on the overall economic health. Companies generally delay layoffs until a downturn is apparent and hesitate to hire until an upswing is more certain. This makes the average duration of unemployment a lagging indicator, reflecting past economic trends.

2. Average weekly hours, manufacturing
   Incorrect. When economic uncertainty arises, firms often modify their workers' hours before making more permanent decisions about layoffs or hiring. As such, changes in average weekly hours in manufacturing can provide early clues about future economic trends, classifying it as a leading indicator.

3. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls
   Correct. As economic shifts become evident, organizations will adapt their staffing levels in non-agricultural sectors. This mirrors real-time economic performance, making employees on non-agricultural payrolls a coincident indicator, representing current economic conditions.

Understanding Business Cycles

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平均失业时间
A不正确。个人失业的时间往往会根据整体经济健康状况而延长或缩短。公司通常会推迟裁员，直到经济明显下滑，直到经济增长更加确定才会招聘。这使得平均失业时间成为反映过去经济趋势的滞后指标。

制造业的平均每周工作时间
B不正确。当经济出现不确定性时，公司通常会在做出裁员或招聘的永久性决定之前修改员工的工作时间。因此，制造业每周平均工时的变化可以提供未来经济趋势的早期线索，将其归类为领先指标。

非农业就业人员
C正确。随着经济转变变得明显，组织将调整其非农业部门的人员配备水平。这反映了实时的经济表现，使非农就业人数成为反映当前经济状况的一个同步指标。