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James · 2024年10月01日

long term 增长率g=9%

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201512300100001207

问题如下：

7. Under Scenario 1, the intrinsic value per share of the equity of Amersheen is closest to:

选项：

A.

R13.29.

B.

R15.57.

C.

R16.31.

解释：

As the multistage residual income model results in an intrinsic value of R16.31.

This variation of the multistage residual income model, in which residual income fades over time, is:

where  is the persistence factor.

The first step is to calculate residual income per share for years 2012 2015:

ROE = earnings / book value

Growth rate = ROE × retention rate

Retention rate = 1  (dividends/earnings)

Book valuet= book valuet 1 + earningst 1  dividendst 1

Residual income per share = EPS  equity charge per share

Equity charge per share = book value per sharet× cost of equity

Using the residual income per share for 2015 of R1.608, the second step is to calculate the present value of the terminal value:

PV of Terminal Value =

R1.6081+0.10-0.70(1.10)3=R3.0203

Then, intrinsic value per share is:

V0=R7.60+R2.52(1.10)+R2.31(1.10)2+R1.98(1.10)3+R3.0203=R16.31

1、基础班李老师讲过，衰减率w=1+g, g为负数，但是这里的g=9%，两者似乎冲突了。

2、解题过程中也没有用到9%，这个长期增长率g是什么前提假设吗？还是一个干扰项？

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年10月01日

同学你好，1.老师上课讲的g其实是特指的RI的增长率，由于RI开始衰减了，所以确实此时的RI的增长率就是负数。且这个RI的增长率其实是为了帮助我们记忆PVRI公式老师才提出的，原版书其实没有引入这个概念，所以考试的时候不做特殊说明，我们都不能认为这个g是RI的增长率哦

这里题目给的9%的g就是最普通最常见的公司分红的增长率，和RI的增长率是两个完全不同的东西

2.所以这个g就是一个干扰项，同学直接忽略即可

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