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Avalon · 2024年10月01日

麻烦助教老师,帮忙看下这题

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202308140300015007

问题如下:

Q. To validate the forecast for rapid growth in the electronic scooter market over the next 10 years, Fromm speaks to the management of Omikroon and investor relations of ZeroWheel, a competitor. Which behavioral bias is Fromm most likely subject to?

选项:

A.Confirmation

B.Conservatism

C.Overconfidence

解释:

A is correct. The management of Omikroon and investor relations of ZeroWheel are almost certainly biased in favor of expecting strong growth for the markets they participate in. To evaluate the forecast, Fromm should seek more independent sources and balance the biased sources with sources biased in the opposite direction or an analyst who is more skeptical.

为啥不选b,保守不行嘛?

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年10月01日

同学你好,请看以下两个讲义截图

本题就是考察的comfirmation bias这个新的黄色的点,其最大的特点就是分析师只咨询竞争对手关于行业的信息(竞争对手同样可能存在对行业过度乐观的看法)

而题干就说了“ To validate the forecast for rapid growth in the electronic scooter market over the next 10 years, Fromm speaks to the management of Omikroon and investor relations of ZeroWheel, a competitor.

而conservative强调的是保持已有观点不改变,或者即时收到相反的观点也拒不接受——题干并没有给出明确的这类相关表达,所以B错




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NO.PZ202308140300015007问题如下 Gertru Fromm is a transportation sector analyst Tucana Investments. She is concting analysis of Omikroon, N.V., a hypotheticEuropeengineering company thmanufactures ansells scooters ancommercitrucks.Omikroon’s petrol scooter vision is the market lear in its sector anhtwo competitors. Omikroon’s petrol scooters have a strong branname ana well-establishestribution network. Given the strong branng establishethe market lears, the cost of entering the instry is high. But Fromm anticipates thsmall, inexpensive, importepetrol-fuelemotorcycles coulbecome substitutes for Omikroon’s petrol scooters.Fromm uses ROIC the metric to assess Omikroon’s performance.Omikroon hjust introcethe first electric scooter to the market year-en2019. The company’s expectations are follows:Competing electric scooters will reathe market in 2021.Electric scooters will not a substitute for petrol scooters.The important researcosts in 2020 an2021 will leto more efficient electric scooters.Fromm cis to use a five-yeforecast horizon for Omikroon after consiring the following three factors:Fromm uses the base case forecast for 2020 shown in Exhibit 1 to perform the following sensitivity analysis:The priof importespecialty metusefor engine parts increases 20 percent.This metconstitutes 4 percent of Omikroon’s cost of sales.Omikroon will not able to pass on the higher metexpense to its customers.Exhibit 1: Omikroon’s SelecteFinanciForecasts for 2020 Base Case (euro millions)Omikroon will initially outsourits electric scooter parts. But manufacturing these parts in-house beginning in 2021 will imply changes to existing factory. This factory cost EUR7 million three years ago anhestimateuseful life of 10 years. Fromm is evaluating two scenarios:Q. To valite the forecast for rapigrowth in the electronic scooter market over the next 10 years, Fromm speaks to the management of Omikroon aninvestor relations of ZeroWheel, a competitor. Whibehaviorbiis Fromm most likely subjeto?A.ConfirmationB.ConservatismC.OverconfinceA is correct. The management of Omikroon aninvestor relations of ZeroWheel are almost certainly biasein favor of expecting strong growth for the markets they participate in. To evaluate the forecast, Fromm shoulseek more inpennt sources anbalanthe biasesources with sources biasein the opposite rection or analyst who is more skeptical.如题。。。。。。。。。

2024-10-11 15:38 1 · 回答