NO.PZ2022122601000042
问题如下：
Li’s team also examined survey data within the consumer credit andtelecommunications industries over the same time period for which the actualdata were collected. They found that projections in the surveys of the CCI andTELI tended to be more volatile than the actual data. However, Li’s team hasdecided not to make any adjustments because a definitive procedure could not bedetermined.
A comparisonbetween the survey data containing projections of the CCI and TELI and theactual CCI and TELI most likely exhibits:
选项：
A.
ex post risk being a biased measure of ex ante risk
B.are callability trap
C.a status quo trap
解释：
Correct Answer: A
As stated, theprojections in the survey data tended to be more volatile than the actualoutcomes over the same time period. This result indicates that the ex-post risk(i.e., the volatility of the actual data) tends to have a downward biasrelative to the ex ante risk displayed by the survey data. This tendency isevidence of ex post risk being a biased measure of ex ante risk.
中文解析：
如前所述，调查数据中的预测往往比同一时期的实际结果更不稳定。这一结果表明，事后风险(即实际数据的波动性)相对于调查数据显示的事前风险倾向于向下偏倚。这种趋势证明事后风险是对事前风险的一种有偏见的衡量。
既然模拟数据比真实数据更波动，接着又说事后风险（实际数据波动性）比事前风险（模拟数据）有向下偏倚，向下偏倚是不是就是波动向下偏倚，没那么波动的意思
