NO.PZ2022123002000014
问题如下：
HNW, a wealth management
company, was forecasting that the euro was likely to appreciate against the US
dollar in the next six months. Testa agreed with HNW’s assessment of the future
course of the USD/EUR exchange rate. His conclusion was derived from assessing
various analysts’ reports and was centered on the following three reasons:
1. real interest rates were higher in euro-based
countries,
2. the potential default of several euro-based
countries from their excessive debt loads would lead to strong support measures
from the IMF and the European Central Bank, and
3. the US balance of trade deficit with euro-based
countries had continued to decline in the past several years and was expected
to continue to decline.
Which
of Testa’s reasons for the future course of the USD/EUR exchange rate in 2009
is most consistent with HNW’s assessment?
选项：
A.Reason 1
Reason 2
Reason 3
解释：
Correct Answer: A
A is correct.
HNW’s assessment was that the euro was likely to appreciate against the US dollar
within the next six months. Reason 1, higher real rates in euro-based
countries, is consistent with an appreciation of the euro. Higher euro rates
will attract “foreign” investors and drive up demand for the euro as they
acquire those investments.
B is incorrect.
Reason 2, the potential default of several euro-based countries from their
excessive debt loads, would result in a lower foreign risk premium (i.e., the
US dollar would be less risky) and should lead to a depreciation of the euro.
C is incorrect.
Reason 3, a decline in the US trade deficit (i.e., net exports), means that for
the United States, imports decreased relative to exports, resulting in lower
demand for the euro, and it should weaken relative to the US dollar.
不是很理解A和B
A: 根据(1+USD inflation) / (1 + EUR inflation) = F/S， 由于EUR inflation 大，所以F < S 即EUR贬值。排除
B: EUR debt 多导致EUR depreciate，但是题目专门说了有IMF的strong support所以不会depreciate。选B
