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珈柠 · 2024年08月09日

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NO.PZ2023040301000196

问题如下:

Which of the following statements about scenario analysis is most accurate?

选项:

A.

Scenario analysis provides a point estimate forecast

B.

Forecast scenarios can be compared to forecasts implied by current valuations

C.

Generic risk factors in scenario analysis are assumed to affect all companies in the same way

解释:

Investors compare these scenarios with other analysts’ (e.g., sell-side analysts) forecasts for a company, as well as forecasts implied by current valuations, to make investment decisions.

A is incorrect because rather than develop single point estimate forecasts, analysts make several forecast scenarios that vary based on different outcomes with respect of key risk factors.

C is incorrect because the final step in forecasting involves incorporating the possibility of different outcomes based on key risk factors as well as judging their likelihood of occurrence. Generic risk factors that affect all companies—but to varying degrees include changes in the business cycle, competition, inflation and deflation, and technological developments.

请问什么叫point estimate forecast?

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已采纳答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年08月09日

同学你好,point就是一个点,所以point estimate forecat就是只提供了一种情况的公司预测——这肯定是错的,情景分析本身就是给出了在很多不同的假设条件下分别的公司估值的情景,而不是只给了一个孤立的情景和仅仅一种假设

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