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珈柠 · 2024年08月09日

CFA|

NO.PZ2023040301000188

问题如下:

A clothing company, which initially produced designer clothing, has increasingly entered into the mass market. Which of the following approaches to forecasting revenues is least appropriate?

选项:

A.

Historical results

B.

Analyst’s discretionary forecast

C.

Historical base rates and convergence

解释:

A is correct. Historical results is least appropriate, because the company has changed its competitive strategy. Analyst’s discretionary forecast may be appropriate, because the company is undergoing a fundamental change. The company is growing and may be transitioning to be more like the industry, in which case historical base rates and convergence may be an appropriate approach.

请问convergence是什么意思?

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已采纳答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年08月09日

同学你好,convergence就是回归

意思就是先按照历史的增长率对公司revenue进行预测,但是预期未来肯定会逐渐增长或下降直到回归到行业平均水平的

也就是设定一个每年有一定阶梯变化的收入增长率使之逐渐靠近行业平均

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