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KKII · 2024年08月08日

A选项为啥是politics，另外关于B选项应该是economic risk吧

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

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NO.PZ202105270100000504

问题如下：

Based only on the emerging markets discussion, developments in which of the following areas most likely signal increasing risk for Country B’s equity market?

选项：

A.Politics B.Competitiveness C.Accounting standards

解释：

A is correct.

Per capita income for Country B has been falling, which is a potential source of political stress.

B is incorrect because the persistent current account deficit has been below 2% of GDP. Persistent current account deficits greater than 4% of GDP probably indicate a lack of competitiveness.

C is incorrect because Country B has been transitioning to International Financial Reporting Standards, with full convergence expected within two years, which is a positive development for better accounting standards.

B国的人均收入一直在下降，这是一个潜在的政治压力来源。

B是错误的，因为持续的经常账户赤字一直低于GDP的2%。持续的经常账户赤字超过GDP的4%，这可能意味着缺乏竞争力。

C是不正确的，因为B国一直在向国际财务报告准则过渡，预计在两年内完全趋同，这是更好的会计准则的积极发展。


1、A选项为啥是politics：讲义关于political risk（willingness to pay），只提到了以下4点，也没提高人均GDP吧。另外人均GDP下降，我理解属于ability to pay，应该属于economic risk吧，怎么就属于political risk（willingness to pay），更多是还款能力而不是还款意愿吧

·      较弱的产权法（property right）、较弱的合同法实施：主权豁免（sovereign immunity），即投资他国资产不受到本国法律保护（legal risk）

·      财产充公，公司国有化，腐败（political risk）

·      两党多政府引发政治不稳定性（political risk）

·      资本管制，限制货币转换（没有将外币换回本币的渠道）（political risk）


2、另外关于B选项看讲义应该是economic risk吧（经常账户赤字/GDP小于4%），答案解析为啥是competitive



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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年08月09日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


Hello，亲爱的同学~

本题问：

  • Experiencing declining per capita income
  • Expected to continue its persistent current account deficit below 2% of GDP
  • Transitioning to International Financial Reporting Standards, with full convergence scheduled to be completed within two years

哪个会increasing risk for Country B’s equity market


Experiencing declining per capita income，会引起风险。

Expected to continue its persistent current account deficit below 2% of GDP，不会引起风险。4%以内都正常，这才2%。

Transitioning to International Financial Reporting Standards, with full convergence scheduled to be completed within two years，2年内就可以过渡到国际通行会计准则，不会引起风险。


Experiencing declining per capita income对应A选项的politics

Expected to continue its persistent current account deficit below 2% of GDP对应B选项的Competitiveness，国际竞争力就体现在current account。

Transitioning to International Financial Reporting Standards, with full convergence scheduled to be completed within two years对应C选项的Accounting standards


本题要选有风险的，因此选A.


回到同学的问题。

1）人均收入持续下降，引发社会动荡，这既会引起还款能力不足（动荡就无法经济发展），也会引起还款意愿不足（社会动荡可能引发政变，新政府不承认老政府的债务）。所以A可以是political。

2）国际竞争力competitive，也是economic的一个方面。











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