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cenwandada · 2024年08月07日

四个选项可以解释一下吗

NO.PZ2023100703000124

问题如下:

An option pricing analyst at an investment bank has been asked to write a report examining the relationship between option prices and implied volatility curves. The analyst notes that the implied volatility curves of different underlying assets often have different shapes and explains the reasons why this occurs. Which of the following statements can correctly be included in the report?

选项:

A.The implied volatility smile commonly seen in equity options is due to the higher probability of a greater than three standard deviation price change than would be expected if prices are lognormally distributed.

B.The implied volatility smile commonly seen in foreign exchange rate options is due to the higher probability of a price change of between one and two standard deviations from the mean than would be expected if prices are lognormally distributed.

C.Demand for option protection against steep drops in equity prices leads to higher prices in out-of-the-money puts relative to out-of-the-money calls, which creates a downward-sloping implied volatility skew in these options.

D.Demand for option protection against the impact of unexpected central bank announcements on foreign exchange rates leads to higher prices, and higher implied volatilities, for at-the-money options relative to out-of-the-money options.

解释:

C is correct. Demand for protective puts will increase the price of these puts, which will increase their implied volatilities, which creates a downward sloping volatility skew. A is incorrect. The volatility smile commonly seen in equity options is downward sloping with higher implied volatility in lower strike prices and lower implied volatility in higher strike prices. This implies a greater probability of seeing a price in the left hand tail and a lower probability of seeing a price in the right hand tail than in the lognormal distribution. B is incorrect. The volatility smile commonly seen in foreign exchange rate options implies a greater probability of the future rate being either <1 standard deviation or >2 standard deviations away from the mean, and a lower probability of the future rate being between 1 and 2 standard deviations away from the mean. D is incorrect. Since the central bank announcements are unexpected the volatility curve will not be shaped with higher implied volatilities at-the-money than out-of-the-money. Protection will most likely be bought using out-of-the-money options which will create a volatility smile, rather than a frown.

四个选项可以解释一下吗

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年08月07日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


A选项说股票期权的波动率微笑,是因为实际的股票极端价格波动出现的概率,比对数正态分布假设下的极端价格波动出现的概率更高。这个说法不够准确。

实际的股票负向极端价格波动出现的概率,会大于对数正态分布假设下的概率。而正向极端价格波动出现的概率,小于对数正态分布。所以股票期权的波动率微笑是左高右低。


B说的是外汇波动在1-2倍标准差之内出现的概率,比对数正态分布假设下的概率更高。这个也不对。外汇应该是在小于1倍标准差或大于2倍标准差,这两个范围的概率大于对数正态分布;而1-2倍标准差这个范围内的概率是小于正态分布的。


C说的是投资者对于虚值看跌期权的需求要大于虚值看涨期权,因为投资者更具怕股市暴跌。这个是对的。虚值看跌对应的行权价很低,这种期权需求高,那么其隐含波动率就大;虚值看涨的行权价格很高,这种期权需求少,其隐含波动率就小。所以从行权价格来看波动率的走势,就是左高右低。


D说的是,外汇市场的投机者为了对冲不可控的政策风险,他们对平值外汇期权的需求大于虚值外汇期权。这个说反了,对冲风险也应该考虑成本,一般都是用更便宜的虚值期权来完成。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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