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巴伦 · 2024年08月06日

curve flatterning strategy是什么意思

NO.PZ2021120102000009

问题如下:

An active investor enters a duration-neutral yield curve flattening trade that combines 2-year and 10-year Treasury positions. Under which of the following yield curve scenarios would you expect the investor to realize the greatest portfolio gain?

选项:

A.

Bear steepening

B.

bull flattening

C.

Yield curve inversion

解释:

C is correct.

A duration-neutral flattening trade involves a short 2-year Bond position and a long 10-year bond position, which have a matched duration or portfolio duration of zero. This portfolio will realize a gain if the slope of the yield curvethat is, the difference between short-term and long-term yieldsdeclines. Yield curve inversion is an extreme version of flattening in which the spread between long-term and short-term yields-to-maturity falls below zero.

The bear steepening in A involves an unchanged 2-year yield-to-maturity with a rise in the 10-year yield-to-maturity, causing a portfolio loss. The bull flattening in B combines a constant 2-year yield-to-maturity with lower 10-year rates, resulting in a gain on the 10-year bond position and an unchanged 2-year bond position.

是只能选flatterning的样子吗,也就是bull和bear二选一,所以invert不符合?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年08月07日

是的,策略是yield curve flattening策略,专门针对flattening曲线的策略,所以只有在flattening时会盈利。但本题是duration-neutral策略,不受bull和bear的影响,于是可以不管bull和bear。

inverted yield curve属于yield curve flattening的极端情况,yield curve flattening策略在yield curve inversion下的盈利还会更大,远远大于曲线flattening的盈利,所以本题选C,yield curve inversion。


具体分析如下:


yield curve flattening strategy是专门针对收益率曲线变flattening所构建的盈利策略。

已知flattening是短期利率相对上升,长期利率相对下降。


专门针对这个曲线变动的Long-short盈利策略(yield curve flattening strategy)是Short短期债券,Long长期债券。


因为题干说了是yield curve flattening strategy,且使用的期限是2年期、10年期债券,所以可知头寸是:

long 10年期债券,Short 2年期债券

同时,这还是一个duration-neutral策略,可以知道Long-short两个头寸的净duration为0,即,整个组合的duration=0.


因为他的duration=0,所以当利率曲线发生平行移动时,组合不受影响,但由于这个组合有long 10年,short 2年,这两个头寸在10年期利率下降,2年期利率上升时可以盈利。所以这个策略就是专门针对利率曲线非平行移动构建的,duration-neutral就是保证了组合不受利率曲线平行移动的影响


这道题的Bear和bull代表的是曲线平行移动,这个组合不受影响,所以不用管bear和bull。


由于是yield curve flattening策略,所以可知在yield curve flattening时,一定受益。

可以判断,在选项B的bull flattening和选项C的yield curve inversion下一定盈利。因为yield curve inversion实际上是flattening的极端情况。


flattening是短期利率相对上升,长期利率相对下降;当短期利率上升的幅度足够大,长期利率下降的幅度足够大时,就会出现yield curve inversion倒挂的曲线。


由于yield curve inversion这两个利率改变的幅度足够大,对应的就是long长期,short短期的盈利足够大,所以本题c的yield curve inversion下盈利最大。


对应的,还有yield curve steepening策略。就是专门针对曲线变steepening构建的long-short盈利策略。具体可以参考基础班讲义,219(yield curve steepening策略)和222页(yield curve flattening策略)

· 2024年08月09日

绝了老师 分析的太好了

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