NO.PZ2022123002000020
问题如下:
Gehlot asks Chlapowski to
provide input regarding foreign exchange management. Chlapowski presents spot
and forward rates in Exhibit 3. She also states:
Statement 1: A positive roll yield could be created in Dong’s portfolio by
selling a USD/EUR forward contract.
Statement 2: A positive roll yield could be created in Dong’s portfolio by
selling a CHF/USD forward contract.
Exhibit 3 Spot and Forward Rates
Identify which of
Chlapowski’s statements is most likely to be correct based on the information
provided in Exhibit 3. Calculate the forward premium or discount for
each statement.
选项:
解释:
Correct Answer:
Statement 1 is
correct.
Dong’s portfolio
is 45% invested in German assets. USD/EUR is selling at a forward premium of 5.3%
compared to the current spot rate. Dong can sell the base currency at a higher
price than the current spot rate, creating a positive roll yield.
Forward premium =
(1.2/1.14) – 1 = 5.3%
Statement 2 is incorrect.
CHF/USD is not in
direct quote format, so the quote must be converted into a direct quote to calculate
forward premium or discount.
USD/CHF spot rate
= 0.99
USD/CHF six-month
forward rate = 0.952
USD/CHF is trading
at a discount of 3.83% and selling CHF would create a negative roll yield for
Dong’s portfolio.
Forward discount =
(0.952/0.99) – 1 = 3.83%
视频讲解中,老师直接把Short CHF/USD的汇率形式改成了USD/CHF,以符合投资人持有的是CHF资产。
但Short CHF/USD forward contract是在未来按照一定的汇率卖出USD(同时买入CHF),那应该等价于Long USD/CHF forward contract,在未来按照一定的汇率买入CHF(同时卖出USD)。
如果上面所说的对的,那题目中的人持有的是CHF资产,但是hedge的时候交易错方向了。
转换成UDS/CHF的格式,就是Long CHF forward against USD,long forward的roll yield是(S0-F)/S0=(1/1.01-1/1.05)/(1/1.01)=3.81%,结果变成了收益。
而且即便不通过上面的转换,直接看题干,Spot rate1.01CHF/USD,Forward1.05CHF/USD,同时还是short (CHF/USD),怎么看都是收益。