NO.PZ2022122601000040
问题如下：
Emergistan is a developing country founded 50 years ago that has exhibited significant economic growth. In its first 38 years, Emergistan had low inflation. At that time, the country established a central bank with a primary mandate to encourage economic growth. The resulting monetary policy has led to 12 years of high and volatile inflation. Its equity market is well-established and liquid. By contrast, secondary market transactions for bonds are small and infrequent.
Joe Cooke is an economist for a pension advisory firm. He is analyzing Emergistan to identify investment opportunities. Cooke performs several analyses of Emergistan’s economy. Exhibit 1 contains a description of five of his analyses and selected comments from his report.
A. Determine which of Cooke’s analyses in Exhibit 1 is most likely to be affected by each of the following sources of error:
i. survivorship bias
ii. regime changes
iii. appraisal data
Justify each response with one reason.(Note: Consider each source of error independently.)
选项：
解释：
中文解析：
库克回归分析的数据系列只包括那些达到发达水平的经济体。他排除了所有未能达到目前发达国家地位的国家。由于他只把幸存下来成为发达国家的经济体包括在内，他对埃及实际GDP增长的预测可能过于乐观。
库克的通货膨胀模型是根据埃及整整50年的历史建立的。然而，12年前央行的创建似乎导致了高企且不稳定的通胀。因此，12年前的数据可能与当前的经济分析无关。
通过使用插值数据点来计算没有可用的债券价格，库克可能创造了一个比实际存在的更平滑(或评估)的价格序列。因此，他很可能低估了债券市场的波动性。他也很可能高估了风险调整后的回报。
appraisal data造成的影响是不是通用的就是underestimate volatility and correlation?
本题答案中的overestimate risk adjusted return只是基于题目条件得到的结论，并不是一般通用性的结论？
