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SHAO · 2024年07月22日

老师,请问这道题怎么理解

NO.PZ2023041004000098

问题如下:

Nabli and Yamata then discuss potential new investments in the energy sector. They review Brent crude oil futures data, which are presented in Exhibit 1.


Yamata presents his research related to the energy sector, which has the following conclusions:

- Consumers have been more concerned about prices than producers have.

- Energy is consumed on a real-time basis and requires minimal storage.

Based on Exhibit 1 and Yamata’s research on the energy sector, the shape of the futures price curve for Brent crude oil is most consistent with the:

选项:

A.insurance theory. B.theory of storage. C.hedging pressure hypothesis.

解释:

The Brent crude oil futures market is in a state of backwardation: The spot price is greater than the price of near-term (i.e., nearest-to-expiration) futures contracts. Commodities (in this case, Brent crude oil) are physical assets, not virtual assets, such as stocks and bonds. Physical assets have to be stored, and storage incurs costs (rent, insurance, inspections, spoilage, etc.). According to the theory of storage, a commodity that is consumed along a value chain that allows for just-in-time delivery and use (i.e., minimal inventories and storage) can avoid these costs. Yamata’s research concluded that energy is consumed on a real-time basis and requires minimal storage. In this situation, demand dominates supply, and current prices are higher than futures prices (state of backwardation).

老师,请问这道题怎么理解

2 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa35 · 2024年07月23日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


我们可以看到当前原油是处于backwardation的情况,并且观察到了:

1.原油的消费者比原油生产者更关注价格

2.原油基本上不需要储存成本

问我们哪个理论可以解释当前的现象:

A选项是保险理论,保险理论是指hedger和speculator之间的关系,而不是消费者和生产者之间的关系,所以不对。

B选项是储存理论,储存理论是FP=SP+ cost - convenience yield,如果cost比较小,就会出现backwardation的状况,所以与当前的状况相符合。

C选项是对冲压力理论,这个是指consumer和producer之间的博弈,如果是consumer对价格更关注,说明consumer需要买入更多的futures来锁定未来的价格,那么此时就会产生contango的状况,与题目中backwardation的现象不符合。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

SHAO · 2024年07月23日

老师,您的解答我明白了,还有一个小问题请教下,上课老师讲到保险理论是生产者担心未来价格下跌,所以short FP,所以此时生产者也是hedger,对吗

pzqa35 · 2024年07月24日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


是的。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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NO.PZ2023041004000098 问题如下 Nabli anYamata then scuss potentinew investments in the energy sector. They review Brent cru oil futures twhiare presentein Exhibit 1. Yamata presents his researrelateto the energy sector, whihthe following conclusions: - Consumers have been more concerneabout prices thprocers have. - Energy is consumeon a real-time basis anrequires minimstorage.Baseon Exhibit 1 anYamata’s researon the energy sector, the shape of the futures pricurve for Brent cru oil is most consistent with the: A.insurantheory. B.theory of storage. C.heing pressure hypothesis. The Brent cru oil futures market is in a state of backwartion: The spot priis greater ththe priof near-term (i.e., nearest-to-expiration) futures contracts. Commoties (in this case, Brent cru oil) are physicassets, not virtuassets, sustocks anbon. Physicassets have to store anstorage incurs costs (rent, insurance, inspections, spoilage, etc.). Accorng to the theory of storage, a commoty this consumealong a value chain thallows for just-in-time livery anuse (i.e., miniminventories anstorage) cavoithese costs. Yamata’s researconcluthenergy is consumeon a real-time basis anrequires minimstorage. In this situation, manminates supply, ancurrent prices are higher thfutures prices (state of backwartion). 老师,您好!theory of storage通常不是伴随着contango现象吗,即期货价格高于现货。看来某个理论下的价格高低现象并不绝对,是吗?麻烦补充一下吧。谢谢!

2023-08-20 10:13 1 · 回答