为什么第二年到期前违约用的是第一年的违约概率呢

NO.PZ2024042601000032 问题如下 A risk analyst is evaluating the cret qualities of a financiinstitution anits counterparties assuming stress contions prevail over the next 2 years. The analyst assesses the possibility of the financiinstitution faulting on its counterparties anuses this information to estimate its valuation austment. The 1-yeC on the financiinstitution currently tras 240 bps. The analyst assumes a constant recovery rate of 80% for the financiinstitution ana constant correlation between the cret spreof the financiinstitution anthe cret spreof the counterparties. Assuming a constant hazarrate process, whis the probability ththe financiinstitution will survive in the first yeanthen fault before the enof the seconyear? A.8.9% B.10.0% C.11.3% 21.3% This question requires one to first finthe hazarrate (λ), whiis estimatefollows:λ= Sprea(1 – recovery rate) = [(240/10,000)/(1 – 0.8)] = 0.12 = 12.0%Thus, 12.0% is the constant hazarrate per year. The joint probability of survivup to time t anfault over (t, t+τ) is:The joint probability of survivthe first yeanfaulting in the seconyeis: the probability ththe financiinstitution will survive in the first yeanthen fault before the enof the seconyear和contionone-yefault probability, given survivthrough the first year为什么算法不一样