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插画 · 2024年07月19日

为什么return要减去inflation?

No.PZ2021052102000006 (问答题)

来源:

The Prometheo University Scholarship Endowment (the Endowment) was established in 1950 and supports scholarships for students attending Prometheo University. The Endowment’s assets under management are relatively small, and it has an annual spending policy of 6% of the five-year rolling asset value.

Prometheo University recently hired a new chief investment officer (CIO). The CIO directs her small staff of four people to implement an investment policy review. Historically, the endowment has invested 60% of the portfolio in US equities and 40% in US Treasuries. The CIO’s expectation of annual inflation for the next 10 years is 2.5%. The CIO develops nominal 10-year return assumptions for US Treasuries and US equities, which are presented in Exhibit 1.



Discuss whether the current investment policy is appropriate given the Endowment’s annual spending policy.


解析

学科:Institutional IPS

知识点:Endowment

Correct Answer:

The policy is not appropriate.

The expected real return of 3.54% is less than the spending policy rate of 6%.

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请问题干The Endowment’s assets under management are relatively small, and it has an annual spending policy of 6% of the five-year rolling asset value.哪里体现出来是real 呢?因为答案里是用real return和spending policy rate做比较,而不是nominal return。


1 个答案
已采纳答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2024年07月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好:


Spending rate自己就是real return。原因如下:

计算公式:Nomial return = spending rate + inflation + expense

Spending是这么描述的:spending policy of 6% of the five-year rolling asset value.

也就是说,这个基金每年花费asset value的6%。注意,asset value本身就是一个名义数值了,asset value里面已经含有Inflation了,所以:

real rate 6% × 名义值asset value,相乘算出来的结果就已经是一个名义值了。

试想一下,如果6%是名义值,6%里面含有Inflation的话,那么:

名义值6% × 名义值asset value,这里面可以进一步拆分

名义值6%可以拆成(inflation + 实际spending rate),名义值asset value可以拆成(实际asset value)×(1+inflation),于是:

名义值6% × 名义值asset value = (inflation + 实际spending rate) × (实际asset value)×(1+inflation)

这里面inflation会考虑2次,会出现inflation的平方项。显然这是不合理的。

所以,6%的Spending rate只能是一个real rate,只表示比例,不含有inflation。

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