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沐沐的方盒 · 2024年07月14日

flight to quality 是bull flatten吗?有点忘记那个知识点了,能请老师帮回忆一下吗

NO.PZ2021120102000033

问题如下:

An active fixed-income manager is evaluating the relative performance of an investment-grade corporate versus a high-yield corporate debt allocation in a fixed-income portfolio.

Which of the following analytical model assumption changes is most likely to reduce the future value of the high-yield portfolio relative to the investment-grade holdings?

选项:

A.

Steepening of the benchmark yield volatility curve.

B.

Decreased likelihood of an economic slowdown.

C.

Increased likelihood of a flight to quality associated with bullish benchmark yield curve flattening (long-term rates fall by more than short-term rates do).

解释:

C is correct. Under a “flight to quality” scenario, macroeconomic factors driving government bond YTMs lower cause high-yield bond credit spreads to rise because of an increased likelihood of and expected higher severity of financial distress.

This relationship is captured in the difference between empirical and analytical duration measures.

如题

2 个答案

pzqa31 · 2024年07月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


应该这样说,bull flatten---代表经济差---投资者flight to quality,是这样一个逻辑。

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pzqa31 · 2024年07月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


flight to quality不是三级的知识点,是咱们从一级就学过的一种经济现象,就是当经济变差的时候,投资者会倾向于购买安全性更高的资产,比如美国国债。所以看到这个词其实就是在暗示经济变差,选择此时对应的收益率曲线的形态就行了。另外,这道题目问的是什么时候HYB相对于IG的价值下降,这里有两个结论:经济表现好时,HYB相对IG的价值上升,经济表现差时,HYB相对于IG的价值下降,所以,这道题的问题就其实也是什么时候经济会变差。


收益率曲线bull flatten,长期利率较短期利率下降更多,意味着当前经济状况变差,且市场预期长期经济也不会有好转,所以,C选项正确。

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