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七七 · 2024年07月14日

shortfall risk 是一种AA方法吗?

NO.PZ2022122801000050

问题如下:

Mukasa serves as a trustee of Channel’s defined-benefit pension plan. The plan is legally distinct from Channel’s assets. The company has made contributions sufficient to maintain a fully funded status. It is a tax-exempt fund and must hold 20% of its assets in domestic government bonds in order to maintain its tax-exempt status. The plan’s key objective is to meet current and future pension obligations. The plan’s current allocation is 60% global equities, 20% domestic government bonds, 15% domestic corporate bonds, and 5% cash. (2020 mock PM)

Which approach is least relevant to a strategic allocation for Channel’s pension plan?

选项:

A.

Shortfall risk.

B.

Heuristic approach.

C.

Surplus optimization.

解释:

A heuristic approach is least relevant. Heuristics refers to rules that provide a reasonable but not necessarily optimal solution. Some investors may skip the various optimization techniques and simply adopt an asset allocation mix (such as the “120 minus your age” rule or a 60/40 stock/bond mix).

Shortfall risk is a liability-relative approach focused on the risk of having insufficient assets to pay obligations when due.

Surplus optimization is a liability-relative allocation approach that involves applying mean-variance optimization (MVO) to an efficient frontier based on the volatility of the surplus (known as surplus volatility or surplus risk) as the measure of risk.

请问老师,哪里的知识点有提到shortfall risk 是一种AA方法?课上讲的AO、ALM、goal-based里都没有提到shortfall risk 这种方法。

1 个答案

lynn_品职助教 · 2024年07月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这个是养老金里的一个概念是一个比较小的单独的知识点,教材也没有专门写,但是在题目和一些例题中是会覆盖到的。


Longevity risk专指:寿命太长,养老金资产不够带来的风险。

Shortfall risk专指:养老金资产不够、资产有缺口带来的风险。


Longevity risk可能会带来Shortfall risk,且该Shortfall risk就是由寿命太长引起的;但Shortfall risk也有可能是由其他因素引起的,例如,DB Fund asset运作不好,投资产生了大幅亏损,也会带来Shortfall risk。


对于DB plan,Shortfall risk就是:plan assets being insufficient to meet her retirement benefit payment


然后Risk的承担者是: her employer


DC plan shortfall risk就是Contributions以及投资运作没有达到退休目标、是否存在Shortfall risk要Depend on(the 12% contribution rate from the company, plus any additional contributions she chooses to make, as well as the performance of the chosen investments.)


能弄明白这种风险以及不同的对比就可以了。

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