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fiona22 · 2024年07月12日

息差收窄

NO.PZ2023061903000008

问题如下:

Q. When the spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and the short-term federal funds rate narrows and at the same time the prime rate stays unchanged, this mix of indicators most likely forecasts future economic:

选项:

A.growth.

B.decline.

C.stability.

解释:

B is correct. The narrowing spread of this leading indicator foretells a drop in short-term rates and a fall in economic activity. The prime rate is a lagging indicator and typically moves after the economy turns.

B正确。息差这一先进指标的收窄预示着短期利率的下降和经济活动的减少。最优惠利率是一个滞后指标,通常在经济好转后才会变动。

为什么息差收窄表明未来经济变差

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年07月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


长期利率里,包好对未来利率的预期。


并且,利率和经济是同向变动的。


对未来利率预期下降,意味着对未来经济预期下降。


息差收窄,意味着对未来利率的预期,相对现在的利率,是下降的。即认为未来经济,比现在的经济差。



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