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SHAO · 2024年07月12日

老师,请问下这道题

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202304070100001302

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 1 and assuming Tyo’s market views on yield curve changes are realized, the forward curve of which country will lie below its spot curve?

选项:

A.

Country A

B.

Country B

C.

Country C

解释:

Correct Answer: B

The yield curve for Country B is currently upward sloping, but Tyo expects a reversal in the slope of the current yield curve. This means she expects the resulting yield curve for Country B to slope downward, which implies that the resulting forward curve would lie below the spot yield curve. The forward curve lies below the spot curve in scenarios in which the spot curve is downward sloping; the forward curve lies above the spot curve in scenarios in which the spot curve is upward sloping.

A is incorrect because the yield curve for Country A is currently upward sloping and Tyo expects that the yield curve will maintain its shape and level. That expectation implies that the resulting forward curve would be above the spot yield curve.

C is incorrect because the yield curve for Country C is currently downward sloping and Tyo expects a reversal in the slope of the current yield curve. This means she expects the resulting yield curve for Country C to slope upward, which implies that the resulting forward curve would be above the spot yield curve.

怎么做的呀

1 个答案
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品职答疑小助手雍 · 2024年07月12日

同学你好,这题问如果Tyo对于利率的预测是对的,那么哪个国家的forward curve会在spot curve下面。

目前A国利率曲线向上倾斜,Tyo的预期是它保持不变。

目前B国利率曲线向上倾斜,Tyo预测的是它reversal in the slope of the current yield curve,回翻转,也就是变成向下倾斜。

C国目前利率曲线向下倾斜,Tyo预测它leading to a reversal in the slope of the existing yield curve,回翻转,也就是变成向上倾斜,而且未来的spot rate会比当前的forward rate要低。


判断forward curve会在spot curve的上还是下就要看利率曲线向上还是向下:

向上的曲线,forward会在spot curve上面,

向下的曲线,forward会在spot curve下面。

综上,只有B国是向下倾斜的曲线,选B。

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