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wukefu · 2024年07月09日

A 选项和C选项

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NO.PZ202112010200000702

问题如下:

A financial analyst at an in-house asset manager fund has created the following spreadsheet of key rate durations to compare her active position to that of a benchmark index so she can compare the rate sensitivities across maturities.



Which of the following statements best characterizes how the active portfolio is positioned for yield curve changes relative to the index portfolio?

选项:

A.

The active portfolio is positioned to benefit from a bear steepening of the yield curve versus the benchmark portfolio.

B.

The active portfolio is positioned to benefit from a positive butterfly movement in the shape of the yield curve versus the index.

C.

The active portfolio is positioned to benefit from yield curve flattening versus the index.

解释:

B is correct. A positive butterfly indicates a decrease in the butterfly spread due to an expected rise in short- and long-term yields-to-maturity combined with a lower medium-term yield-to-maturity.

Since the active portfolio is short duration versus the index in the 2-year, 5-year, and 30-year maturities and long duration in the 10-year, it will generate excess return if the butterfly spread falls.

  1. 题目中出现的10年bond 属于中期还是长期?
  2. A选项和C分别错在哪里呢? C中说的flatten我们是不是需要考虑两种情况的flatten ?
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发亮_品职助教 · 2024年07月10日

这道题有30y的出现,所以10算中期。如果没有30y,这个10y利率要当成长期分析。因为利率曲线上的long/short策略只看相对期限,不讨论绝对。


如下图,这道题从difference来看,出现了3个不同的区间,第一个区间是2y~5y的这个区间,组合的KRD比index小。

第二个区间是10y这个点,组合的KRD比index要大

第三个区间是30y这个点,组合的KRD比index要小



所以,这个组合的策略是针对利率曲线上(短期、中期,长期)3个区间的


讨论利率曲线的斜率slope改变,如flattening与steepening,这是把利率曲线分成了(短期,长期)两个区间,策略也是针对这2个区间的策略。策略只会涉及短期与长期债券。


如果是把利率曲线分成了(短期,中期,长期)3个区间,那这讨论的是曲线的curvature改变,针对curvature的策略一定涉及短期、中期和长期债券。


从上面表格的differenc数据判断,这道题有短期、中期,长期3个区间的策略,所以一定是针对曲线curvature改变的。选项A的steepening与选项C的flattening是利率曲线slope改变,不涉及中期,不是curvature改变,所以A,C直接排除。


结合选项B的postive butterfly,也可以具体分析出来组合的收益要比index更好,所以进一步验证B正确。


或者直接分析A和C错误:

A的steepening,短期利率相对下降,长期利率相对上升。因为组合的短期KRD更小,享受不到短期利率下降带来的收益,所以从这点看比index的收益差。长期利率相对上升,而组合的长期KRD更小,组合的长期债券价格损失更小。组合的短期债券有更高的收益,长期债券有更多的亏损,综合看是比Index表现好还是差,不能明确的判断。所以不选A。


c的分析同理。选项C的flattening,不管是哪两种情况,分析steepening与flattening只看利率的相对改变,flattening的相对改变就是短期利率相对上升,长期利率相对下降。这个也没有明确的收益好坏,所以不选。

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