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黄路迦 · 2024年07月08日

公式里的第一项cap rate 是current还是expected

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

NO.PZ2020012102000008

问题如下：

An analyst at a real estate investment management firm seeks to establish expectations for rate of return for properties in the industrial sector over the next year. She has obtained the following information:

Estimate the expected return from the industrial sector properties based on the data provided.

解释：

The expected change in the cap rate from 5.7% to 5.5% represents a (5.5% – 5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5% decrease.
Using the expression E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7% + (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.
Note: As the cap rate is expected to decrease, property values are expected to increase, hence the cap rate change contributes to the expected return.

解析：

上限率从5.7%到5.5%的预期变化为(5.5% -5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5%。

使用表达式E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7%+ (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.

注意到，由于 cap rate预期会下降，物业价值预期会上升，因此上限税率的改变对预期回报有贡献。

算出来的是expected return，第一项不应该是expected cap rate吗？


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1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年07月08日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


因为求解expected cap rate，就是要用标准的公式计算。

这个推导过程何老师课上带同学们一步步推过，我把相关讲义讲图放上来，供同学参考。

金丹来说，第一项就是NOI/P，因为租约是签订好的，且是长期的。所以NOI是当期的，所以是用当期的cap rate


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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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