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一凡007 · 2024年06月28日

bull flatten是什么意思?

NO.PZ2024030508000065

问题如下:

A fixed-income trader expects a bull flattening of the interest rate term structure, and wants to pursue a strategy that would profit from this movement in rates. The trader decides to achieve this goal by taking positions in 2-year and 10-year bonds. Will the 2-year rate increase or decrease in the trader’s expected scenario, and which of the following sets of trades would be the most likely to generate a profit if the trader’s expectations materialize?

选项:

A.2-year rate Decrease; Short the 2-year and buy the 10-year

B.

2-year rate Decrease; Buy the 2-year and short the 10-year

C.2-year rate Increase; Short the 2-year and buy the 10-year

D.2-year rate Increase; Buy the 2-year and short the 10-year

解释:

Explanation: A is correct. A bull flattening occurs when long-and short-maturity rates both move down, but long-maturity rates move down by more than short-maturity rates. If the trader expects a bull flattening, the trader can buy the 10-year bonds and short the 2-year bonds. If the trader is right, the 10-year bonds will increase in value relative to the 2-year bonds, and the trader will make money.

B, C, and D are incorrect.

Learning Objective: Define the “flattening” and “steepening” of rate curves and describe a trade to reflect expectations that a curve will flatten or steepen.

Reference: Global Association of Risk Professionals, Valuation and Risk Models (New York, NY: Pearson, 2023). Chapter 10. Interest Rates [VRM–10]

请老师讲解一下这道题

1 个答案
已采纳答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年06月28日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


bull flattening意思是在牛市环境的影响下,利率期限结构变的平缓了,也就是长期与短期利率之差缩小了:


由于是bull,所以利率自然是下降的(利率下降才能带来牛市)。此时短期利率与长期利率都在下降,但是由于是flattening,所以长期利率 - 短期利率 这个差值,缩小了。

所以长期利率下降幅度 大于 短期利率下降幅度。


既然如此,我们应该买入利率下降幅度更大的债券,也就是长期债券,所以是buy the 10-year bond.

同时为了对冲风险,我们Short the 2-year bond。(万一利率没降低,利率反而升高了,那short 2-year bond还可以赚一点钱)


所以A是对的。

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