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追梦赤子 · 2024年06月23日

total expected return of the fund’s global bond portfolio

NO.PZ2018120301000011

问题如下:

Celia and Dan review the total expected 12-month return (assuming no reinvestment income) for the global bond portfolio. Selected financial data are presented in Exhibit 2.


Based on Exhibit 2, the total expected return of the fund’s global bond portfolio is closest to:

选项:

A.

0.90%.

B.

1.66%.

C.

3.76%.

解释:

Correct Answer: B

B is correct. The total expected return is calculated as follows:

Total expected return = Rolling yield

+/– E(Change in price based on investor’s benchmark yield view)

+/– E(Change in price due to investor’s view of credit spread)

+/– E(Currency gains or losses)

where Rolling yield = Coupon income + Rolldown return.


第三项和第四项是价格的变动值,不需要除以期初价格吗?因为算的是total expected return收益率,两者量纲好像不一样。

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已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年06月24日

不是的哈,第三项和第四项算出来的一定是价格的变动率,△price%,这个直接就是债券收益率里的一部分。


因为注意看,在第三和第四项计算时,是使用到了duration和convexity。duration代表的是当利率改变1单位时,债券的价格改变多大的幅度,注意这里是价格的改变率,△price%,并非价格的变动金额△price

convexity也是一样的含义,利率变动1单位,债券的价格能变动多大幅度,只不过convexity是2阶非线性影响。


以第3项为例,债券的duration=5.19,意思是只要利率变动1%,债券的价格就会变动5.19%,convexity是22,只要利率变动1%,对债券价格的影响就是1/2 × 22 × (1%)^2

duration和convexity都是价格的变动率(收益率)


△Price% = -duration × △yield + 1/2 × convexity × (△yield)^2

本题预期利率改变是0.15%,则债券的价格变动幅度是:

△Price% = -5.19× 0.15% + 1/2 × 22 × (0.15%)^2


这个最终算下来一定是债券价格变动率/收益率,包括第四项也是收益率哈!

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