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xīnyí · 2024年06月22日

modified duration

NO.PZ2021120102000005

问题如下:

An active fixed-income manager holds a portfolio of commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities that tracks the Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage-Backed Securities Index. Which of the following choices is the most relevant portfolio statistic for evaluating the first-order change in his portfolio’s value for a given change in benchmark yield?

选项:

A.

Effective duration

B.

Macaulay duration

C.

Modified duration

解释:

A is correct.

Effective duration is a yield duration statistic that measures interest rate risk using a parallel shift in the benchmark yield curve (ΔCurve).

Effective duration measures interest rate risk for complex bonds whose future cash flows are uncertain because they are contingent on future interest rates. Both Macaulay duration (B) and modified duration (C) are relevant statistics only for option-free bonds.

备注:本题题干说明是投资MBS与CMBS(commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities)。由于MBS、CMBS的基础资产为房贷,而房贷存在提前偿还的“期权”,所以本题的投资组合可以理解为含权债券(类似Callable bond),因此应该使用Effective duration。

老师可以解释一下modified duration 和mac duration 的区别和用途吗

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年06月23日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Macaulay duration就是时间的平均数,比如,一个10年期付息债券,第一年的coupon=5,发生时间t=1,第二年的coupon=5,他的发生时间t=2....等等以此类推。


那我们就是给这些现金流的发生时间t=1,t=2, t=3...算一个加权平均数,这个时间的平均就是Macaulay duration。

其中权重就是该时间点现金流现值的占比。比如t=1时间点的现金流是coupon=5,这个现金流的现值假设是PV=3.5,债券所有的现金流现值之和(其实就是债券的价值)假设是99。那么这笔现金流的占比就是:3.5/99,给这个时间t=1赋予权重后为:1 × 3.5/99


同理,第2笔现金流发生时间t=2,假设权重算下来是3.3/99,给这个时间2赋予权重后为:2 × 3.3/99


依次类推,把所有的经过权重计算后的时间加总:1 × 3.5/99 + 2 × 3.3/99.....

这就是macaulay duration。

所以他是时间的概念,衡量的就是:债券现金流发生时间的一个平均数,或者说他可以衡量,我们投资债券平均来看回收债券所有现金流需要的时间。


假设10年期债券的Macaulay duration=8.5,那可以说,投资这个债券,回收他的所有现金流平均来看的时间就是8.5. 所以macaulay duration是有单位的,他的单位就是年years


Macaulay duration在三级就只有一个用处,就是单期负债Duration-matching匹配时,一个条件就是Asset macaulay duration = liability's due date = investment horizon


下来就是modified duration,Modified duration就是利率敏感度,衡量利率变动1单位,债券的价格波动多少幅度,这是一个系数,没有单位。

Modified duration用来计算利率改变之后,债券的价格变动多少。

Mac duration和Modified duration的关系是:Modified duration = macaulay duration / (1+折现率)

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