NO.PZ2022122601000057
问题如下：
Lyon then reviews selected macroeconomic research summarized in Exhibit 3. She forecasts that inflation in Edonia will increase over the next six months.
Support Lyon’s inflation forecast with two reasons.
选项：
解释：
Correct Answer:
Factors that are consistent with higher inflation expectations are as follows.
Consumer Confidence Index: Rising consumer optimism suggests that near-term consumer spending will increase. Consumer spending represents a sizeable portion of GDP in many developed countries and is an important business cycle factor. Consumer confidence survey data are watched closely as indicators of whether consumers are more likely to buy more goods, driving up prices. When consumer confidence is rising, inflation is more likely to increase.
Inventory/Sales Ratio: The inventory/sales ratio has been trending down and is expected to continue to decline. When the inventory/sales ratio declines, the economy is likely to be stronger as businesses try to rebuild inventory. A strong economy often leads to higher inflation.
Output gap: The output gap is defined as the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP scaled by potential GDP. Exhibit 3 shows that output gap has been closing and is expected to become positive as a proportion of potential GDP, and therefore spare capacity of the economy is forecast to decline. This implies higher inflationary pressure.
中文解析：
消费者信心指数:消费者乐观情绪上升，表明近期消费者支出将增加。在许多发达国家，消费者支出占国内生产总值的相当大一部分，是一个重要的商业周期因素。消费者信心调查数据受到密切关注，被视为消费者是否更有可能购买更多商品、从而推高价格的指标。当消费者信心上升时，通胀更有可能上升。
库存/销售比率:库存/销售比率一直呈下降趋势，预计将继续下降。当库存/销售比率下降时，由于企业试图重建库存，经济可能会走强。强劲的经济往往导致更高的通货膨胀。
产出缺口:产出缺口被定义为实际GDP与潜在GDP之差，按潜在GDP比例计算。表3显示，产出缺口一直在缩小，预计产出缺口占潜在GDP的比例将变为正值，因此，预计经济的闲置产能将下降。这意味着更高的通胀压力。
当存货下降时，说明是initial阶段，此时通货膨胀也是下降的才对吧？
