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Stella · 2024年06月21日

不理解高成功概率为什么不选fixed income占比更高的c

  1. CFA III
  2. Asset Allocation

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201710200200000107

问题如下：

7. Based on Exhibit 1, which portfolio best meets the Laws’ goal to fund an endowment for their alma mater?

选项：

A.

Portfolio 1

B.

Portfolio 2

C.

Portfolio 3

解释：

B is correct.

Portfolio 2 best meets the Laws’ goal to fund an endowment for their alma mater in 20 years. In present value terms, the gift is valued at $500,000, with the Laws desiring a high probability of achieving this goal. Although slightly more conservative than the 75/25 global equity/bond mix, Portfolio 2 has a greater growth emphasis compared with Portfolios 1 and 3. Therefore, Portfolio 2 is best for funding the endowment at their alma mater given the goal’s long-term horizon and the Laws’ desire for a high probability of achieving it.

考点：goal-based approach

解析：投资期：20 years，长期。实现目标的程度：high probability（与education expense的very strong desire相比，程度略低）。

因为投资期长，所以cash占比可以放低：portfolio 1 cash占比35%偏高，排除。

因为实现目标的程度高，但不是非要满足，所以可以承担一些风险。Portfolio 2和3的差别不仅仅只有diversifying strategy，还有fixed income和global equities。发现portfolio 2的FI占比低，GE占比很高，虽然diversifying strategy略低于portfolio 3，但是由于投资了大量的股票，所以portfolio 2整体上更有成长空间。

如题，而且c选项equity和diversify加起来占比也还行，不理解


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1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2024年06月21日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


同学你好：


这道题没有选择Portfolio 3,而选择Portfolio 2 的原因是，Portfolio 3的债券投资比例较高。虽然Portfolio 3的对冲基金比例大于Portfolio 2，但是高风险的投资，股票+对冲基金占比加总低于Portfolio 2，所以还是偏保守的投资。捐赠的钱可以投的激进一些。


Endowment 的high probability of success在这道题目中可以跟教育费用的very strong desire相对比。通过文字描述， endowment的目标迫切程度比教育费用低，所以风险容忍度相对较高，但也不是完全无所谓目标是否能实现，所以也不能投资得太激进。portfolio 2的Fixed Income占比低，Global Equities占比很高，虽然diversifying strategy略低于portfolio 3，但是由于投资了大量的股票，所以portfolio 2整体上更有成长空间。另外20年的投资期时间也比较长。所以组合2更适合。


在答这道题的时候，我建议同学采用用排除法。

投资期：20 years，长期。实现目标的程度：high probability（与education expense的very strong desire相比，程度略低）。

因为投资期长，所以cash占比可以放低：portfolio 1 cash占比35%偏高，排除。

因为实现目标的程度高，但不是非要满足，所以可以承担一些风险。Portfolio 2和3的差别不仅仅只有diversifying strategy，还有fixed income和global equities。发现portfolio 2的FI占比低，GE占比很高，虽然diversifying strategy略低于portfolio 3，但是由于投资了大量的股票，所以portfolio 2未来的收益增长潜力更大一些。

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