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Beby · 2024年06月21日

麻烦老师解释一下time period bias

NO.PZ2022122601000041

问题如下:

A new consumer credit mechanism was being tested on a small scale using a smartphone application to pay for items instead of the traditional credit card. The application had proved successful in the use of microloans in developing countries and was now being applied to a much broader consumer base. The new challenge for Li's team is to develop a model for the expected return for these new consumer credit companies, which are called "smart credit" companies because they combine the consumer credit industry and what had traditionally been considered the telecommunications industry.

Although smart credit company returns data are sparse, a five-year monthly equally weighted index called the "Smart Credit Index" (SCI) was created from the existing companiesreturns data. The number of companies in the index at a given time varies because of firms failing and also merging over time.

The SCI data most likely exhibits which type of bias?

选项:

A.

Data-mining

B.Survivorship C.Time-period

解释:

Correct Answer: B

The SCI data is an index that is not composed of the same number of firms each period because of firm failures and combinations through time, which is indicative of a survivorship bias.

中文解析:

SCI数据是一个指数,它不是由每个时期相同数量的公司组成,因为随着时间的推移,公司倒闭和合并,这表明存在生存偏差。


如题

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年06月22日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


Hello,亲爱的同学~

time period bias是指:某一个重要事件发生前的数据,与之后的数据,不可比较。

例如:

美联储成立前的经济数据,更多体现的是纯经济博弈。

美联储成立后的经济数据,除了体现经济因素,更多体现政策因素。

前后数据经济规律不同,因此不可比较。

如果强行对比,分析结论就是有错误。这是time period bias的含义。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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