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李平 · 2024年06月12日

ESG分数高，难道对估值没有任何帮助吗？

  1. ESG
  2. ESG analysis, valuation and integration

NO.PZ2022120702000055

问题如下：

Natasha completes a review of a large UK based oil company and assigns it an improving ESG score because she is impressed by the steps it is taking to meet the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, she is concerned about the industry’s long-term outlook and potential for stranded assets.

What action(s) should Natasha reflect in her valuation of the company?

选项：

A.Adjust her discounted cash flow (DCF) model to reflect a lower cost of capital due to positive ESG steps taken and assign a low price earnings ratio to reflect stranded assets in later years. B.Adjust her discounted cash flow (DCF) model in later years to reflect write offs for stranded assets. C.None, no action is required as the oil price is the only real variable that matters. D.Adjust her discounted cash flow (DCF) model to reflect a higher cost of capital and adjust book value down to reflect an impairment charge made against stranded assets.

解释：

Natasha完成了对英国一家大型石油公司的评估。因为她对该公司为满足《巴黎协定》所采取的措施印象深刻，因此给该公司一个提高的ESG评分。但是从长期看，她对该行业的前景和搁浅资产的可能性表示担忧。这会导致该石油公司的未来估值预期降低。

Natasha 应调整贴现现金流(DCF)模型，以反映更高的资本成本，并调整账面价值，以反映对搁浅资产的减值支出。（D选项正确）

ESG分数高，难道对估值没有任何帮助吗？

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1 个答案

净净_品职助教 · 2024年06月13日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


在这道题目中，尽管该公司因其符合《巴黎协定》的措施而获得了较高的ESG评分，但这并不一定会对其估值产生直接的积极影响。这是因为：

  1. 行业前景和搁浅资产风险：油气行业的长期前景可能不佳，存在搁浅资产（stranded assets）的风险，即未来某些资产可能无法产生预期收益。高ESG评分不会改变这一事实。
  2. 资本成本的调整：高ESG评分可能会降低短期内的资本成本，但在长期来看，由于行业的系统性风险和搁浅资产的可能性，整体资本成本可能会提高。
  3. 估值调整：为了反映长期风险，Natasha需要在DCF模型中提高资本成本，并调整账面价值以反映潜在的减值支出。这是为了准确反映行业前景和长期风险对公司估值的影响。

因此，尽管ESG评分较高，但由于行业的长期风险和不确定性，估值需要做出相应的调整。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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