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wukefu · 2024年06月11日

statement 3 的解释 应该是above

NO.PZ2021090805000023

问题如下:

Exhibit 1

Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Retirement Goal of a Hypothetical Client

According to the table below, John's interpretation is:

  1. Over 20 years, 30% of the time clients have not met their goals.

  2. Over 15 years, the value of the investment portfolio is at least 25% of $1,711,500.

  3. Over 20 years, the client will run out of money 75% of the time.

Among John's three possible interpretations for Exhibit 1, the most accurate one is:

选项:

A.

Interpretation 1.

B.

Interpretation 2

C.

Interpretation 3

解释:

A is correct. Interpretation 1 is correct: Over 20 years, 70% of the trials were successful, which means that the client achieved his or her goals 70% of the time, or did not achieve them in 30% of the trials.

B is not correct. Fifteen years later, the portfolio value of $1711500 indicates that in 25% of the trials over that time frame, the portfolio value may exceed $1711500, rather than 25% of that value.

C is incorrect. Over 20 years, 75% of the trials will result in losses below $249211. Although some of the results will be losses, the table does not indicate the positive or negative aspects of the results.

A是正确的。解释1是正确的:在20年的时间里,70%的试验是成功的,这意味着客户70%的时间达到了他或她的目标,或者在30%的试验中没有达到。

B不正确。15年后,1,711,500美元的投资组合价值表明,在该时间段内25%的试验中,投资组合价值可能超过1,711,500美元,而不是该价值的25%。

C不正确。在20年内,75%的试验将导致低于249,211美元的损失。尽管其中一些结果将是损失,但该表并未说明结果的积极或消极部分。


按照题目给的条件。解释应该是有75%的概率,投资的FV是above $249,211。这么理解对吗?

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已采纳答案

王暄_品职助教 · 2024年06月12日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


对的,没错,另外是above -249211,因为表格里是用了括号,代表负号

----------------------------------------------
努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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2023-12-05 19:47 2 · 回答

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