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139****0989 · 2024年06月11日

B为什么不对？请解释说明

  1. ESG
  2. Environmental factors

NO.PZ2024010503000017

问题如下：

The term “dismal theorem” refers to the idea that:

选项：

A.potentially catastrophic outcomes should be valued to negative infinity.

B.moral considerations related to future climate change warrant low discount rates.

C.the probability of total civilizational collapse causes the discount rate to increase dramatically.

解释：

A is correct. The dismal theorem suggests that standard cost–benefit analysis is inadequate to deal with the potential downside losses from climate change. However small the probability, as long as we cannot completely rule out scenarios of climate-induced civilizational collapse, their expected value must be thought of as being equal to negative infinity. Economist Nicholas Stern argued that moral considerations warrant using a low discount rate when assessing future climate damages to place adequate value on the lives and welfare of future generations.

B为什么不对？请解释说明

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1 个答案

pzqa38 · 2024年06月12日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


题干

The term “dismal theorem” refers to the idea that:

选项

A. potentially catastrophic outcomes should be valued to negative infinity. B. moral considerations related to future climate change warrant low discount rates. C. the probability of total civilizational collapse causes the discount rate to increase dramatically.

正确答案

A. potentially catastrophic outcomes should be valued to negative infinity.

解释

A选项正确地描述了“dismal theorem”的核心思想。Dismal theorem提出，在评估气候变化带来的潜在灾难性结果时，标准的成本–收益分析是不足够的。即使这些灾难的概率极低，但只要我们不能完全排除气候变化可能导致的文明崩溃情景，其预期价值必须被认为是负无穷大。

分析选项B

B. moral considerations related to future climate change warrant low discount rates.

虽然低折现率确实与气候变化的道德考量有关，但这并不是“dismal theorem”的核心内容。**折现率（discount rate）**的高低是评估未来气候变化损害时的一个重要因素，经济学家Nicholas Stern主张使用低折现率以合理评价未来几代人的生命和福利。然而，这与“dismal theorem”本身的主要论点并不完全一致。Dismal theorem主要关注的是在面对气候变化的潜在灾难性结果时，传统的成本–收益分析方法的不足，而不是道德考虑如何影响折现率的使用。

分析选项C

C. the probability of total civilizational collapse causes the discount rate to increase dramatically.

这也是不正确的。实际上，dismal theorem并没有涉及折现率增加的问题。它强调的是，无论概率多么低，只要无法排除气候变化可能导致的文明崩溃情景，其预期损失应该被认为是负无穷大，而不是折现率的变化。

总结

B选项不正确的原因是它将道德考虑与折现率联系在一起，这虽然是一个相关话题，但并不是“dismal theorem”的核心论点。“Dismal theorem”主要讨论的是面对可能的灾难性后果时，标准的成本–收益分析方法的局限性，而不是道德考虑如何影响折现率的使用。

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