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Sallyrrr · 2024年06月07日

这道题可以用计算器吗

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

NO.PZ2023052407000004

问题如下：

Suppose Mylandia announces that it expects significant cash flow growth over the next three years, and now plans to increase its recent CAD2.40 dividend by 10 percent in each of the next three years. Following the 10 percent growth period, Mylandia is expected to grow its annual dividend by a constant 3 percent indefinitely. Mylandia’s required return is 8 percent. Based upon these revised

expectations, The expected share price of Mylandia stock is:

选项：

A.

CAD49.98

B.

CAD55.84

C.

CAD59.71

解释：

C is correct. Following the first step, we observe the following expected dividends for Mylandia for the next three years:


The second step involves a lower 3 percent growth rate. At the end of year four, Mylandia’s dividend (D4) is expected to be CAD3.29 (=2.40×1.103 ×1.03). At this time, Mylandia’s expected terminal value at the end of three years is CAD65.80 using Equation 17, as follows:


Third, we calculate the sum of the present values of these expected dividends using Equation 16:


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1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年06月07日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


这种题目可以不用计算器直接算。如果要用，也只能考虑一下得到所有现金流后，再用CF功能，如下：

使用CF功能：

1）根据题干给出的D0=2.40（now plans to increase its recent CAD2.40）和前三年固定增长10%（10 percent in each of the next three years），得到D1，D2，D3如下：

2）根据后续股利的“grow its annual dividend by a constant 3 percent indefinitely”，得到①D4=D3×（1+3%）=3.29；②根据永续增长模型得到第三期的股价ES3=D4/(r-g)=65.80

3）最终录入CF功能的现金流如下：

CF0=0，C01=2.64，C02=2.90，C03=3.19+65.80=68.99；I=8，CPT NPV=59.6972，和答案的细微差异源自计算过程中的四舍五入。

由于本题没有初始投资，CF0=0。所以此时NPV就是要求的PV值，不需要再做调整。


用CF功能比较繁琐，有时候反倒容易错。和直接按的计算量差别也不大。可以根据自己的情况，选择更为熟练的一种方法。

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