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好好学习向前进 · 2024年06月03日

为什么anchoring bias的描述是不对的?

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NO.PZ202206070100000103

问题如下:

Which of O'Reilly's explanations regarding the anchoring bias and prudence bias is most likely incorrect?

选项:

A.for both. B.only for the prudence bias. C.only for the anchoring bias.

解释:

Solution

A is correct. Both of O’Reilly’s explanations are incorrect. His description of the prudence bias is incorrect—he is referring to the confirmation bias. The prudence bias is the tendency to temper forecasts so that they do not appear extreme or the tendency to be overly cautious in forecasting. His explanation of the anchoring bias is also incorrect. The anchoring bias is the tendency of the mind to give disproportionate weight to the first information it receives on a topic: initial impressions, estimates, or data, anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments.

B is incorrect. His description of the prudence bias is incorrect—he is referring to the confirmation bias.

C is incorrect. O’Reilly’s statement regarding the anchoring trap is incorrect. This is a description of availability bias.

A是正确的。奥莱利的两种解释都是不正确的。他对审慎偏差的描述是不正确的——他指的是确认偏差。审慎偏差是指为使预测不显得极端而调整预测的倾向,或预测时过于谨慎的倾向。他对锚定偏差的解释也是不正确的。锚定偏误是一种倾向,即大脑会对接收到的关于某个主题的第一个信息给予不成比例的权重:最初的印象、估计或数据,从而锚定随后的想法和判断。

B是不正确的。他对审慎偏差的描述是不正确的——他指的是确认偏差。

C是不正确的。奥莱利关于锚定陷阱的声明是不正确的。这是对可得性偏差的描述。

anchoring bias 不就是第一印象过于深刻,会锚定第一印象来做出预测从而导致偏差吗?

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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年06月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


anchoring bias 不就是第一印象过于深刻,会锚定第一印象来做出预测从而导致偏差吗?

Hello,亲爱的同学~

“对第一印象深刻,根据第一印象做预测”,这不是anchoring bias ,是availability bias。


而ancoring bias,锚定的不是第一印象,锚定的是数字。


同学注意这里的:number,数字。有没有数字,是判断anchoring的重要依据。

本题并没有提到锚定在某个数字上,而是根据头脑里的深刻印象来做决策,这符合:how easily the outcome comes to mind,也就是availability bias。

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