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Alfred · 2024年05月27日

这题哪里能看出变化已经发生了

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NO.PZ202403050400000901

问题如下:

Which of the following is the most likely impact on short-term bond prices if Quantum’s expectations regarding the payroll report are correct?

选项:

A.Fall B.No change C.Rise

解释:

A is incorrect. Bond prices are unlikely to rise or fall based on this information because it is already anticipated by the market.

B is correct. Although Quantum is forecasting a fairly low non-farm payroll number, their expectation is in line with market consensus forecasts. Although these data might be considered weak, they provides information that is anticipated and thus already reflected in asset prices. Prices would be more likely to rise or fall if the news is a surprise relative to fully anticipated information.

C is incorrect. Bond prices are unlikely to rise or fall based on this information because it is already anticipated by the market.

如题

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品职助教_七七 · 2024年05月28日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目说明:“...if Quantum’s expectations regarding the payroll report are correct”。说的是Q对于payroll的预测正确。不是“变化已经发生了”

当预测正确时,资产价格不会变化,因为被预期到的变化已经包含在现有的资产价格之内了。只有预期之外的因素才能引发资产价格的变化。故选择No change。


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