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Ausilio · 2024年05月26日

关于pegged FX的问题

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202209060200004506

问题如下:

Which of the suggestions Stone outlines for Palma in selecting the proposed investments is most likely correct? The one regarding:

选项:

A.local currency investment is most likely correct. B.spread advantage is most likely correct. C.the credit cycle is most likely correct.

解释:

Solution

B is correct. Investments in securities denominated in a foreign currency can often produce higher yields than domestic investments produce, particularly in emerging market countries. However, if the portfolio manager chooses to hedge the foreign exchange (FX) exposure, the cost of hedging can offset a significant amount of the yield advantage, thus reducing the relative value advantage. This may not be the case for currencies that are pegged because the portfolio manager may choose not to hedge the FX because the foreign currency will most likely be more stable, assuming there is no devaluation.

A is incorrect because investments in countries where the currency is pegged may not require FX hedging, given more stability in the exchange rate.

C is incorrect because credit cycles may vary across regions and this can be used to the advantage of the portfolio manager to diversify.

老师好,这个second的说明我不是特别理解:

原文是:“Second, he should avoid local currency investments in countries where the exchange rate is pegged.”意思应该是说不应该投资固定汇率的国家的货币——这个我理解是对的,因为pegged固定汇率对外汇储备的压力比较大,同时那个国家也很难保持货币政策自主权。

但是我不是很理解大案“investments in countries where the currency is pegged may not require FX hedging, given more stability in the exchange rate”,这个问题和FX hedge有什么区别吗

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年05月27日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


Second, he should avoid local currency investments in countries where the exchange rate is pegged.

这道题出的不够精确,这句话从分析上看,这种Pegged的货币币值不太稳定,所以理论上应该要尽量回避。


但是这道题的题干没有考虑这么深,他这句话只是说exchange rate pegged,那站在投资债券的角度看,不存在汇率风险,因为汇率稳定,所以就不需要进行对冲了。那不需要进行对冲,则这种债券投资起来还是比较好的,可以规避对冲成本。所以Second这句话考虑到这个层面的话,应该是错误表述,我们应该可以投资这种国家的债券。


但如果考虑更深入,就是pegged国家可能存在货币后期大幅贬值的风险的话,那这个second这句话就是对的。不过本题没有考虑到这个层面。


答案的这句解释就只考虑对冲的成本。意思就是,Pegged这样的国家投资,因为汇率稳定,所以根本就不需要对冲,只用考虑债券投资即可,所以投资起来是OK合适的。这里仅仅是考虑到了对冲成本,未考虑Pegged给货币带来的风险。

investments in countries where the currency is pegged may not require FX hedging, given more stability in the exchange rate”


这道题出的不够精确,有点歧义,大概明白含义就可。

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